Prust04's September '24 Portfolio Review

Another rollercoaster month in the books. September started by continuing the sharp sell-off that started for me in late August, with my portfolio hitting its lowest point since early May. The recovery only brought me back halfway to my latest August peak before the only major pieces of news for my companies hit me with a double whammy last week. I’m patiently waiting for the next round of earnings and hoping they’ll be a catalyst for a late year surge. No earnings this month so I’ll just briefly cover my month of activity and decisions below.

Here’s my results to date:

JAN: +11.38%
FEB: +19.98%
MAR: +3.37%
APR: -7.07%
MAY: +15.18%
JUN: +7.13%
JUL: +0.19%
AUG: -3.43%
SEP: -2.32%
YTD: +68.69%
CURRENT: +62% (OCTOBER DID NOT START WELL!!)

Here’s my updated portfolio:

My Decisions:

SOLD OUT:
GCT: A short report came out detailing their many shell companies and it was enough to spook me out of such a low confidence position.
ITCI: Wanted to consolidate funds elsewhere.
GMED: Realized that post-merger, numbers had been decelerating.
IOT: Mystified by the huge price increases from continuously decelerating growth, feel there’s better opportunities

NVDA: +1.7% MoM Price Change
Nothing major to report and I expect they’ll need to wait until earnings to get another to see a significant move. It sounds like Blackwell is now moving forward and they have plenty of room to grow. I’m not touching it any time soon.

TMDX: -6.6%
I trimmed near the latest top when they got over 20%. They recently were named to the S&P Small Cap 600 and I’m looking forward to another strong earnings report.

PGY: -29%
Another capital raise gut punch out of nowhere last week, although a few on the board have posted on how it may have actually been a wise move. I was surprised not to see any sort of rate cut bump for PGY, either. There seems to be enough catalysts lined up to finally positively move performance & stock price more significantly, and I have been adding consistently at what I think will be bargain prices by the end of the year. I wrote about those in my last monthly summary so I won’t reiterate them here. But the upcoming earnings and guidance should be a “put up or shut up” moment for PGY. A lot of positive news and now it needs to play out in the numbers, for my patience to continue. I’ll be looking for rev growth >33% and improving Income and FCF, with a beat and raise.

SMCI: -6.7%
The continued delay of the annual report and then the DOJ investigation was finally enough to put me on the conservative side of the “risk-reward” equation. I did not sell out completely but decided that until this gets resolved, 10% is their max allocation which was a healthy trim. I may trim further as opportunities arise.

UPST: -5.6%
I left UPST untouched again as I patiently wait for future results. Like PGY, no real rate cut bump for them either, but I did see an analyst or two begin to look more favorably at UPST. And like PGY, I think this is a huge upcoming report for them, as much for the current results as for the guidance. It would be wise for them to continue to be conservative under the current cloud of anxiety, so I’d feel good about a beat and raise of any magnitude, which would represent their highest revenue since Q2 ‘22.

NU: -7.3%
With the SMCI news, I took the opportunity to add to NU, which I’d been wanting to do for a while and they are now up to 7.6% of my portfolio. I’m hoping they will organically grow from here, but I’m keeping an eye on the dip in revenue growth and hope that it does not continue to decline as it did last quarter.

TSLA: +22.2%
The hype engine seems to have turned on for TSLA again, and certainly they’ll be a beneficiary of rate cuts. Once again they are due for big updates, and I’ve had to resist adding to them as I just don’t trust anything Musk says. I may end up being late to the game but I am going to wait until earnings to add to them if they are able to get back on track. This is a likely landing place for SMCI trims, if they do actually deliver on a promise or have positive earnings.

NTRA: +7.4%
I decided to add here as I reviewed my last portfolio review and become more impressed by the accelerating numbers across the board. Reminder: Revenue is accelerating: 43%, 52% 58%. Margins are accelerating: 51%, 57%, 59%. They are probably two quarters away from being net income positive. This is another landing spot for future funds.

IMMR: -5.2%
I added here after I wrote my last review and looked into some of their numbers and recent royalty agreements with some of the biggest companies in the world. A small company but I’m hoping they are getting more consistent revenue deals in place to continue their tremendous growth.

ALAB: +21.9%
I added here after dropping them into my Koyfin list and seeing how they stacked up against my current holdings in terms of growth and valuation. They are up near the top.

ASPN: -3.5%
I had been wanting to add to ASPN after they had really great earnings and finally had a chance to do so.

SOWG: - 0.2%
No changes.

Here’s to a great Q4 for the board!

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Thanks for your time to prepare the month end report in a great format.

I value your introduction of some still immature tickers with the opportunity to reach community revenue growth objectives in approaching quarters.

Finally, I also, left IOT based on slumping revenue growth, but from a cloud sector perspective IOT continues to exist in a near leadership position as it has for several quarters as reported in Jamin Ball’s Clouded Judgement analysis (https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/), suggesting an overall deterioration in the sector as a whole.

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