UPST still in the sweet zone, closed at $24.37 and sitting at $24.85 at end of after hours session. I did sell some shares AH on 27th but missed the opportunity to buy back $1 cheaper yesterday. I am torn between making those micro profits and wanting to reduce holdings before earnings.
E*Trade had a feature that uses put/call data to predict the price reaction post earnings. That is, a prediction on the size of the post earning price reaction, not the direction. The last 4 quarters, the predictions were 11%, 13%, 22%, and 23%. Current prediction is 22%. The actual moves were quite a bit larger at +26.2%, -18.2%, +35.7% and -56.4%. I am unwilling to risk 22% or more down which is why I want to reduce holding to half of my target.
Meanwhile, at Thursday’s opening, UPST was down a fair amount and the July 29 $23.50 put was at $0.72 (versus my $0.82 sell on Monday). I decided to double the put exposure, possibility of $0.72 in two sessions.
We shall see.
KC