Leak of good news?
Pre-emptive short squeeze?
Up another 7% premarket just hours before earnings release? Who would do that? Other than everyone who knew that KC was taking the under and has been on the wrong side of every price move since November…
If I chase this puppy now, just take me out back and shoot me, o.k.?
KC
Me again. One last before bed.
Sold the UPST that is not subject to the calls. Up 50% in a week. Now at 5.5% of portfolio, will be at zero if above $36 at Friday close. Will be about 8 or 9% if it closes below $25.50 and those shares are put to me.
KC
You might get those shares.
ER at a glance seemed pretty poor, especially the $170m for next Q, which seems very low.
However, I remember TTD didn’t do much in 2020, and stock traded like a king anyway.
I wonder if this AH low will be the low…can we get a new 52 wk low, and get to $20?
Dreamer
You might get those shares.
So far, an AH low of $27.30, but bounced back from there.
I guess the market priced in some near existential collapse of loan volume. According to the Marketwatch news feed, UPST nailed the July pre-earnings revised forecast, but the analysts were expecting a slight beat. But the forecast is a sequential drop in revenue of 25%. Hard to see the stock going anywhere until next earnings at earliest unless there is some ABS activity.
Haven’t listened to call, don’t know if there is any news on auto loans.
Might sell the remaining in after hours and move to “something else”.
KC
Can’t sell 'cause the remaining shares are subject to covered calls which I can’t trade AH. Wait to see where the dust has settled tomorrow.
KC
I know, way too many posts on UPST and puts and calls. But, I just realized how special the UPST puts and calls are this week. I keep checking back to my IRA account and then back to my Xcel spreadsheet, look at the numbers and then the formulae and then a mental reality check…
The put plus call premiums amount to… 15.1% of the value of the shares. For one week.
The DDOG and CRWD are over 2%, too.
I’ll try to restrain myself, really.
KC
I’ll try to restrain myself, really.
Why?
It is not like we are running out of space. Post away, especially if it helps your process.
Woke up for a pee break. May as well check the market. UPST up 17%. However, it is like looking directly at a star, now you can’t see it. Was up 17% now just 14%. Caught the naughty gnomes frolicking with the buy orders and they ran away. Or something. Looked for news. Maybe a buyout? Santa Claus agreed to funding commitment? No news on E*Trade. Silence.
At the open, I toyed with the idea of closing the covered calls and selling all the shares. But, too cheap to pay the 30 cents. Because I knew that UPST could not go anywhere until they proved the business model with another ER or two. Or until they had progress with the funding.
O.k.
I hate UPST.
There.
I said it and I’m glad.
One minute, the $25.50 put is in play, the next the $36 call might get executed.
I heard a rumor that you can’t time the market. Some old geezer over at Saul’s. Dunno.
KC