PVTL - Bear's interpretation

The one thing I haven’t seen anybody reference is sequential growth. They provided a supplemental that I don’t remember seeing last quarter: https://s22.q4cdn.com/183718357/files/doc_financials/2019/Q2…

In it, they showed subscription revenue by quarter:

Apr 2017: 53.4m
Jul 2017: 64.6m (up 21%)
Oct 2017: 66.0m
Jan 2018: 75.0m
Apr 2018: 90.1m
Jul 2018: 97.5m (up 8%)

Last year it went from 53.4m in April to 64.6m in July – an increase of 11.2m or 21%

This year it went from 90.1m in April to 97.5m in July – an increase of 7.4m or 8%.

If it had increased 21%, subscription revenue would have been 109m this Q. For anyone who was expecting something like that, 97.5m is a colossal disappointment.

Perhaps I’m being too simplistic, but that’s my interpretation of why the stock is down so much today.



Hi Bear,

I think at the same time though, the company did in fact still grow subscription revenue 50% yoy, and will continue to do so, probably for the next year and maybe beyond. It is still pivoting from service to subscription.

Somehow I think customer count will go up, much more than the 15 they just added. One thing to remember with PVTL, is that they do not include accounts that spend less than 50K, and many first time customers dont spend that in the first quarter with Pivotal.

Also, the CFO was asked about internal metrics and their guidance, which she noted that their metrics were fine and that they would not have raised guidance if otherwise. I think she said along the lines of “prudent” guidance which is usually code for “conservative” guidance.

Anyway, just some points for those looking for positive takeaways and reasons to perhaps, not sell.



Yeah, it looks like the thesis might be broken. With subscription growth contracting that fast this early in the evolution it will take much longer for total growth to close with the “hidden” subscription growth.

If they had maintained 69% subscription Rev growth total revenue would been $176M. That would come out to 39% total growth. Even something around 60% would get them in the mid 30’s. But at this rate getting much higher than low 30’s to mid 30’s is going to be a struggle. Particularly if there’s any more contraction there.


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