QE govMBS & CBM

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
1

QE long gone and with it the most all gov MBS from 2009 to 2020.
corporate bond issuance came back to life in a real way as companies are trying to lock in still relatively low interest rates. According to Bloomberg, about 20 companies – including Lowe’s, Walmart, Deere, and McDonald’s – are lining up $30 billion to $40 billion in bond offerings this week.

The Fed will raise the discount rate another 150 basis points over the next 2Qs

Without much left in gov Mortgage Backed Securities, banks will do the heavy lifting looking ahead, Requiring higher interest rates and points getting into a mortgage.

How long will the housing market stall?
How high will rents increase for 20 and 30 somethings?

Construction May not come back until 2028

1 Like
2

The FED is retiring treasuries. It is not all about MBS.

3

In 2017, the Fed started letting some of its mortgage bonds expire. But then, in 2020, the pandemic happened, so the Fed went back to buying mortgage bonds. The goal was once again to put cash into the economy.
This approach is gone probably forever.