Quill, Now Let's Stress Test That Template

You and me have been going back and forth for a couple years now, looking for charts and indicators that offered an edge. You called it The Search for the Holy Grail. I was just looking for something better than what I was using. But that HA Smoothed template is as close the Grail as I think we’re going to get.

These are what I see as its advantages. Its single panel format means that one is never having to scroll the page down to see the other panels, because there aren’t any. Next, because it’s a single panel, the chart occupies a lot of screen real estate. That makes it easy to see. Next, the default colors are pretty optimal for max contrast without being obnoxious. Lastly, the smoothing dampens a lot of signal noise.

As for its downsides, of which there are sure to be some, the most obvious is that smoothing can create a false sense of orderliness, making a fairly chaotic time-price seem more predictable than it really is. For that reason, we need to push the implied rule set to its limits to see where it breaks down and where it fails to keep us out of trouble.

Frankly, I’m having a hard time finding the weak points, and this after slamming through a couple hundred charts. I’m sure the weak points are there, because nothing is perfect, nothing works every time, all the time. Nothing. So the next test will be to do some real-time, real-money trades, and this is what I expect. To make this system work, buy-stops and sell-stops are going to have to be used, because actual prices are going to be different than the smoothed ones we’re working with in the charts.

It’s late, way past my bedtime. But this has been a really productive day, and I even got in a bike ride. So a shout out of thanks to anyone who’s wandered into the forum in the last couple of days and asked questions. It’s thinking about answers to your questions that pushed me in new directions.

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Man, that is why you are the GOAT ; o)) and I the little goat.

I own a substantial amount of shares of COST and CELH plus am looking at all the SPDR’s and my wife’s Ellevest.com matrix portfolio. e.g. VWO, MUG. Freaking amazing.
I am using the 2-month chart and from the current date walking my way backwards by sliding the chart to right and must at least see two (2) Arcs’. Click on the help? in the upper right-hand corner and kruz down for an explanation of the ARC’s.

Now, as I keep going backwards, almost at every switch, (on or plus or minus a day bar) there was an ARC if you were to use the Simon Sez, Simon Sez II and Simon Sez IV rules. They are all winners.

I saw this same technique on Tradingview.com with blue and red dots at the very bottom of the chart. The author was trying to sell the indicator software for about $897.00. All blue dots were buy signals and the red dots were to be ignored.

I changed the chart to 1D 5minutes for what a day trader would see CELH.
I changed the chart to 1D 240 minutes (4 hours) for what a day trader would see trading ^ETHUSD.
I changed the chart to 1D 120 minutes (2 hours) for what a day trader would see trading ^ETHUSD. I trade on Robinhood and looking to trade on Tradestation.com, Cryptocurrency Trading Platform | TradeStation Crypto
Buy, sell, and trade BCH, BTC, ETH, LTC, AAVE, COMP, LINK, MATIC, MKR, SHIB, and USDC. They are expanding and adding more coins.
One-click order entry.

^AAVEUSD - in on 1/5/23 at 54.106 and currently on 1/23/23 @ 86.655 that has sell signal 3:50 pm. the ARC popped followed by a red bar.

HA Smoothie is perfect for trading Cryptos. Just throw darts at the above list and let it rip.

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Quill,

I had to look up “GOAT” in a slang dictionary, for it not being a term I was a familiar with. I’m flattered, of course, by the honorific. But I think you need to thank yourself for being the other half of this online/off-line collaboration.

Yeah, my stumbling onto ‘HA Smoothie’ wasn’t an accident, but the result of endless efforts to simplify, simplify, simplify. For sure, it seems to be a good analysis tool. Whether it will hold up when real-time, real-money trades are based on it is a whole 'nother matter.

Arindam

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