RBRK and IOT Q1

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Rubrik

Rubrik reported Q126 and it was great in all areas.

  • Sub Rev +54%, total rev +49%
  • Sub ARR +38%
  • Contrib Margin 8.0% +17pp
  • FCF 33M
  • large custs +28%
  • healthy +$28M to both FY revenue & ARR guides, now +34.1% and +27.0%
  • new partnership with Google & Mandiant, with Annapurna spreading from Azure/AWS to GCP, and was GCP partner of the year
  • new partnerships with Deloitte, NTT Data, Rackspace
  • new Chief Transformation Officer (ex-Zscaler) aka Chief C-suite advocate

Samsara

Samsara reported Q126 (its seasonally weakest Q every year) and it was solid … but the market is way over-reacting. It’s currently -11% afterhrs.

I guess it was due to wanting a bigger Q2 guide off the weaker Q1. Last year’s guide was +3.3% seq in Q2, this year is +1.7%. Yet the FY guide +$22M increase was their biggest raise in 7Qs.

  • Revenue re-accel to +30.7%, or +6.0% seq (vs +1.6% last year from extra week)
  • Q2 guide was same as Q1’s, +1.7% seq
  • FY26 guide raised +$22M to +24.5%
  • ARR +30.6%, or +5.3% (vs +6.7% last yr … seasonally weakest)
  • op margin +12pp to 13.9%, TTM rose to 11.9%
  • FCF margin +6pp to 12.5%, TTM rose to 10.4%
  • Rule of 40 hit (after slipping to 39 last Q), TTM stayed at 42
  • large custs +34%, net new 132 (improvement over 116 last yr … seasonally weakest)
  • Beyond conf is later this month so will see all their big new announcements then
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2

Herr Markt had a few too many biers, methinks (in reference to IOT and the very sharp after hours drop). This was a very good quarter.

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3

I thought the RBRK Q1 results were great. I was quite disappointed in the Q2 (1.2% qoq) and full year revenue guidance.
With the recent run up it feels like the Q1 results are already priced in. For me the guidance doesn’t justify the current valuation. Could be sandbagging but I’m staying on the sidelines for the time being
-Mayklejoth

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