Realtime analysis

[foodles]

Saul and all contributors to this board,

One thing I love about this board is when something happens to a company that is followed here, people discuss it immediately and give you the confidence to take action that you deem is appropriate in your situation, if you want.

BOFI’s drubbing yesterday was discussed and most comments agreed that this was old news and had already been dealt with so shouldn’t affect the company in the long run. I realize that may or may not turn out to be true, but it did give me the confidence to buy some more with the flash crash caused by one disgruntled employee filing a lawsuit the company claims is meritless but still wiped out 30% of the market cap. This all happened BEFORE the CC in which the CEO defended his company, which confirmed in my mind the majority conclusion that was arrived at on this board.

I belong to 2 paid MF services, and I like them, but in my opinion, they are too far to the other side where we don’t get ANY commentary from TMF-ers when events happen to companies they own because they’ll say the thesis hasn’t changed and we’re long term investors so no comment is necessary.

If what happened to BOFI happened on one of the services I subscribe to, I seriously doubt there would have been enough analysis (THE DAY IT HAPPENED) to give me the confidence to have purchased on the dip (again, I realize it may or may not turn out to have been a smart move, but I think it is).

This is just my opinion, I could be wrong, but that’s the way I see it, and I appreciate everyone here that shares their viewpoints when events occur so we all can maybe benefit from them.

Thanks!
Mike

[iAmMikesUserName]

I agree, while I like the fool subscriptions I have had for many years, I get less and less out of them since 90% of the analysis seems to confuse buy and hold with buy and hope.

A week or so there was a sell rec from one of them that essentially bottom ticked the stock after years of downtrend, and it popped 10% or so the next 2 days.

It’s a good starting place for ideas, but the smart people on good boards like this one are better for timely investing decisions

[dearnojem]

I am with you Mike. Eventhough I am mostly a lurker here and provided that I did not take any action, I am surprised by the amount of information from Gauchochris, KC, Saul, Neil, etc. from the board.

Even Saul mentioned he was buying but do not copy him since he might be wrong. In the end, it is our own responsibility if we will pull the trigger or not.

Johnny

• Little position in BOFI (TMF1000 wise advise, a little is all you need.)

[nevercontent]

I belong to 2 paid MF services, and I like them, but in my opinion, they are too far to the other side where we don’t get ANY commentary from TMF-ers when events happen to companies they own because they’ll say the thesis hasn’t changed and we’re long term investors so no comment is necessary.

To be fair to TMF, I think members expect higher quality and more thoughtful analysis from their published pieces. As a community, we’re posting as we uncover information, have random thoughts or insights, are able to put some pieces together, find articles, maybe bring up some new arguments or counterpoints (some informed, some not), etc. It’s a community exploration rather than a published, polished, actionable piece of analysis, though certainly a “running opinion” begins to emerge for those following along as more pieces fall into place.

In this case, I think the overall running opinion didn’t change drastically throughout the day as more information was uncovered (though it certainly had some bumps, like when the actual complaint came to light), but it didn’t have to go that way. Could you imagine if a TMF service published a formal piece with one opinion, and then later in the day published another one that said they changed their minds? I don’t think they could get away with that too many times before people began to question the quality of the work. But that conflict of opinion and changing of minds is completely natural on the boards – we’re all just fellow investors trying to learn and prosper together, after all.

For folks who were able to take advantage of the dip, that turned out to be nice (for today, at least), but that’s not TMF’s game: they’re looking at how an investment will compound over the years, and a little volatility over a few days doesn’t mean much. What does mean a lot is whether anything new has emerged that meaningfully alters their opinion of management or the business in a way that might impact that long-term thesis, and I do hope that TMF publishes a thoughtful, considered analysis after they’ve had some time to gather facts, examine everything methodically, and really think about it all. That’s what I feel like I pay for (beyond new investing ideas, of course).

Where I do think TMF could really improve is managing expectations. I think it’d help a lot just to see an official post or update that simply says something to the effect of “we see it, we’re on it, we will definitely let you know what we think, but it’s going to probably take a little time for us to really gather up, analyze, and consider all the facts and form an opinion. We’re content to hold our shares in the mean time while we perform our analysis.” MF Pro often does that (usually with a board post), and it seems like members are much more patient and content to wait knowing the team is on it: they value the team’s diligence and thoughtfulness, and want a considered analysis.

In any case, I agree that the boards and community are wonderful But I also think the official TMF updates from the services play an important role that complements, rather than competes with, the boards, and I’m very happy to have both.

Neil

[Foolintheopen]

Excellent post, Neil.

However, it is good you signed as your real name, lest we begin to question your screen name

But I also think the official TMF updates from the services play an important role that complements, rather than competes with, the boards, and I’m very happy to have both.