Here are the recent Bear Catcher Combined signals as taken from GTR1 using GTR1 Helper 4.5. The complete set of signals may be found by running GTR1 with the BCC url: http://gtr1.net/2013/?!!QlpoMTFBWSZTWVb2ik4AAiLfgBAAIgd!2F8D…
Launch the url, take the option for Detailed Report and check the box for Signal Values. Finally, click “Run Backtest” and then download the report.
The market is in an unusual state with NHNL bearish for over 3 months while DBE is bullish. NHNL often has short term whipsaws, and this might show up again in the form of a short-term market rally that resets NHNL sometime in March or April. The longer term looks uncertain until a new market high is reached that resets DBE.
NHNL has been bearish for the last 64 market days (bars) and DBE remains bullish. This has happened 12 times in the last hundred years. The bull market continued in 1998 for another year, but that is the exception. The other 10 times, DBE went bearish in less than 2 months. The earliest DBE could go bearish this year is about 3 months from now, in late May.
In 1998, SPY gained 43% in the 459 market days after 19981020.
In 2000, SPY gained 7% in the 23 market days after 20001220.
If NHNL stays bearish the next 2 weeks, the number of comparable dates falls to only 5. There are 3 dates with NHNL bearish 92 market days (with DBE bullish): in 1973, 1990, and 2008. There are no dates with barsSinceNHNL1 above 100 (except soon after BCC = 0 bottoms). NHNL could go bullish and end this sequence. NHNL remaining bearish until May would be something not seen before, and so a rally sometime before May that resets NHNL might be expected. This would make this possible top more rounded.