Thanks Caromero, after thinking about this I think I might have been all wrong. Instead of comparing AMD to NVDA, I think I should be comparing AMD to the other companies I am invested in. Because AMD maybe able to grow much faster than them. Thanks again.
Andy
So I went back and looked at the charts. AMD went from $10 to $100 (1000%) over 3 years - 2018 to 2021:
I think AMD will hit $200 in 2024 so another double up in less than 3 years:
The question should be why did AMD see a 2000% rise in 6 years. I think its the broad base of products and the leading technology vs if nvidia sees a slowdown in AI what do they have to fall back on to see the high valuation that they currently have - video cards for the desktop market? IF AI doesn’t do well for AMD but the laptop cpu market continues to move to AMD then AMD will still prosper I think. They now have 1/2 the desktop market when back in 2018 they had less than 10% of that desktop market and no presence in the server workstation supercomputer market. Now the fastest most efficient supercomputer in the world is AMD powered and uses AMD AI gpu’s. Their server workstation cpu’s are the best technologically with no serious competition yet, but ARM may be in their future. I believe Nvidia will hit $1000 in the next 12-18 months, but I also believe AMD will hit $200 in the next 12 months. Again, thanks for the great comments on this topic we are all vested in…doc
Gartner just released their 2023 revenue numbers:
#1 Intel at $48B
#2 Samsung $40B
#3 Qualcomm $29B
#4 Nvidia $24B
#5? AMD $22B?
Per Gartner, this is revenue from chip designers so excludes TSMC.
The growth story is dictating the stock price with Intel and Samsung shrinking while Nvidia and AMD are growing.
The nvidia number seems much too low. Trendforce seems closer with a number >$50B for Nvidia. We will see if Gartner publishes an update to explain how they arrived at the numbers.
Hey Doc,
Where did you find the 1/2 the desktop market share number? The latest I have seen was Q3 2023, and it was around 20% market share. I do think they had grown to about half the HIGH END desktop market though… Let me know if you have a link, or some sort of reference.
Thanks,
Alan
alan, it was on one of the asian sites and showed that AMD had reached parity on the desktops with intel. I’m sorry I don’t remember offhand…doc
It would be easier to agree with you if AMD wasn’t selling all the AI chips they make. Both NV and AMD are dependent on TSMC so Nvidia cannot own the market as TSMC can only offer them so many wafers and wants to retain all its customers. AMD has complete flexibility on how to use its wafers, as CPU, GPU, or AI. If AI demand grows, as it is seeming to, then NVidia won’t meet everybody’s demands and at some prices people will switch so NV cannot keep on raising profits.
Nvidia is a great company. But so is AMD, and so is Intel. Google lists seven major AI chip companies. This is not a zero sum game, and all AMD needs to make better products by some metrics. I believe AMD’s line of products works better with other AMD products, which can drive the most important metrics of value (teraflops per dollar) and performance per watt (on going expenses). We’ve gone years longer than I thought it would take Intel to catch up to AMD and I still don’t have a decent idea when that will happen. So the AMD solution seems safe for at least a couple of years.
Since you say buy and hold is dead, you probably feel differently. I say buy low sell high. I am now trying to take my big profits before they disappear. So I’m out and AMD jumped $24/share since I sold (and pulled back today). I have no objections to preferring NV to AMD. NV seems to have the best products in GPU and AI. But that doesn’t mean AMD isn’t also worth owning. But Apple, Alphabet, Qualcomm, and Amazon are all working on AI chips. A lot of companies with histories of surviving if not dominating means some will drop out and buy AI chips from someone else, but there are some deep pockets there.
Fool On,
Roleplayer
I must apologize for my error. I looked up my dates and I bought earlier than I thought for my recent triple, back in 2020. If I had bought NV on the same date instead I’d be looking at about a seven bagger. Serves me right for posting after dialysis. I am sorry for having done so and lament, once again, that we cannot edit our prior posts.
I don’t know quite what you mean. I thought you were advocating for one company at first, but maybe not. Whatever, don’t beat yourself up about AMD sailing off, you have made a few good calls and if you were happy when you sold recently, focus on that. You never know the AMD SP might fall enough to be an optimal strategy.
I think Lisa Su recently said something like there is room for more than one fortune to be made in AI.
I think the new kids on the block trying to get into AI chips are going to have a steep learning curve. I thought I had spent 23 years using AI to develop my product only to find there seems to have been a revolution in AI, which perhaps makes my scribbles redundant.
Have fun.
