interesting read. Will the stock drop after earnings, and will it rebound later in the year? is now the opportunity to buy or wait longer? What are people doing?
There does seem to be some tracking between INTC and AMD. INTC met in Q1 but forecast a weak Q2 followed by a strong H2. This seems to be a reasonable expectation for AMD as well. I think both stocks have priced in the Q1/Q2 weakness. Intels problem is nobody believes the H2 recovery yet. AMD will depend on the guidance Lisa gives and credibility of those H2 numbers.
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I’ve seen some news where the street is thinking that AMD will do better than the CEO has said. These expert estimates have AMD growing AI as much as 6 billion this year. I just checked Tipranks and they have AMD as a strong buy with 25 buy ratings and 7 hold with 0 sell. The price target ranges from $140 low to $270 highest and $204 the average. Tipranks says AMD beats earnings 75% of the time (last 12 months) and beats sales forecast 100% of the time (same). They also say that the Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar has a 90% success rate with AMD and he reiterated his buy for AMD 23 days ago.
This month there has been a slew of analysts reiterate buy or initiate coverage on AMD and one downgrade to hold.recommendations. I’ve decreased my investment in AMD over the last 2 months when AMD was over $200 due to concerns regarding ARM, and Intel starting to bring out cpu’s that will compete with AMD cpu’s. The financials haven’t been stellar (just steady) either so I decided to get a little more diversified since AMD held a huge position in my portfolio since the stock price blew up back in 2017 . I hope AMD has an earnings beat again that is significant and bodes well for AMD moving into the AI space this year. We will see in the upcoming week.
All this being said, I believe that AMD has a good position in AI gpu’s and could see that explosive growth we saw back in 2019, 20, 21 and 22 with stellar growth again. Don’t get me wrong, Nvidia will continue to be king of the AI mountain for years (3-5), but I anticipate that AMD will have quality products at competitive pricing and bring in billions while Nvidia dominates for 3-5 more years. I am concerned about INTC bringing new TSM cpu’s that may erode AMD dominance in the cpu space and hurt growth there. I am concerned that AMD hasn’t been able to grow significant business in the regular gpu market. Anyway, before I get to rambling this is my 2 cents worth as a long time follower of AMD here at the fool and a member of the AMD community here as well. Comments welcome…doc
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I added 8% to my holdings of AMD on Friday, more in hope than expectation.
Was not thinking about results, just thought the shares were cheap and I would kick myself later for not buying now.
I have generally actually been pulling back on the stock market a little bit for a variety of reasons but I have bought a little AMD lately for precisely this reason. I had bought some around 180 and some around 170 and I’m tempted to keep adding even if I’m not entirely sure when I’ll be in profit on those shares. I still have a bunch that I bought around $100 or a bit lower and I think I have a few shares I bought in the '70s.
I have too many variables in my head right now to be making wise choices, though. Not just with this company but far too many others. Really asking myself about simplifying my portfolio, which is spread around in a bunch of areas at this point and making me a bit nuts.
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Well that was a mis-timed purchase in retrospect.
I would never have expected a reaction like this to an earnings slight beat and an upgrade for full year expectations.
AMD seemed to me be quite bullish in the Q&A session.
Markets never admit to being stupid, but they are sometimes. Will just have to wait as per the end of year guidance for full year results. They ought to be in a position where they are ramping up MI300 or Mi350 sales which should mean 3* sales next financial year.
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We’ve all done it. It’s no big deal. I bought an etf for $25 range a couple of weeks ago and my son in law just bought it for $23 range. I wish I would have waited but alas, it just worked out that way. I’m still hoping next quarter for a boost in the MI300 and MI350 sales that will give AMD a pop…doc
Here’s the problem and I’ve seen it before, we all have:
Lisa Su promises all is going well and according to plan.
Stock runs on that basis.
Stock also runs on the basis that “Surely AMD will exceed that optimistic but realistic plan because XXXX.”
Stock winds up overbought and overpriced because we’re all looking for X-TREME results rather than just great results.
Great results come. Market beats us up because they weren’t X-TREME results.
Nothing wrong with the company, or not much if some segments are slow. But basically we’re not already carving up the weak underbelly of the obviously failing NVIDIA and so we’re worthless. WORTHLESS!!!
I’m debating whether to buy more at this point or maybe 5% lower. Too late to sell unless you’re getting out for good I think.
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I agree. From 2020 through 2022 AMD showed tremendous growth, resulting in a very high multiple. Following that the AI hype engine for the MI300 kicked in. From 2022 to 2023 revenue was flat, then maybe 10-20% growth/year expected in 2024/2025. So far in 2024 gains in MI300 are offset by losses in PLD’s and gaming. During the CC Lisa mentioned that in H2 2024 they have more MI300 supply than demand, so there is still some revenue/earnings upside for this year.
Alan