Regarding UBNT, Citron, buy-backs, and Volume

Now that it has been well over 10 days since Citron attacked Ubiquiti, the 10-day average volume has normalized back down under 1,000,000 shares/day from around 3,000,000 per day thanks in part to the 11 million-something shares traded on the day of the Citron attack.

I forget whether it was here or on the Rule Breakers board, but someone pointed out the SEC rule about share buy backs being limited to a percentage of average volume over some period. I don’t recall the exact specifics of whether it was the 10-day average volume or something else.

I almost suspect that the slight UBNT share price drop of the past few days in contrast to the steady rise since the Citron short attack may be a result of UBNT becoming more limited in their maximum daily buy-back and thus applying less upward pressure on the share price (which ultimately will be good for them getting a good deal on the buy-back authorization).

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Let's see if this volume data on Ubiquiti will paste decently from Excel. Apologies for the other paragraph issues.
After previewing, it seems to be decent, but I will still provide a quick explanation of what these 3 columns are. 
Left hand column is a date, these were all days the market was open. The middle column is the 
volume of shares traded that day (per Scottrade), with my rounding to the nearest 1,000 to avoid bug dust. 
The right hand column is either notes or the rolling 5-day average volume for the numbers associated with 8/11 and following.

Date	Ubiquiti Volume (# shares rounded to 1k)	Notes
8/3/2017	 3,132,000 	just after earnings
8/4/2017	 1,171,000 	
8/7/2017	 491,000 	back to "normal" after earnings
8/8/2017	 481,000 	5-day rolling average starting 
8/9/2017	 440,000 	at 8/11 below
8/10/2017	 517,000 	Prior 5-day rolling average
8/11/2017	 340,000 	 453,800 
8/14/2017	 392,000 	 434,000 
8/15/2017	 256,000 	 389,000 
8/16/2017	 310,000 	 363,000 
8/17/2017	 514,000 	 362,400 
8/18/2017	 241,000 	 342,600 
8/21/2017	 272,000 	 318,600 
8/22/2017	 184,000 	 304,200 
8/23/2017	 367,000 	 315,600 
8/24/2017	 424,000 	 297,600 
8/25/2017	 557,000 	 360,800 
8/28/2017	 **994,000** 	 505,200 
8/29/2017	 545,000 	 577,400 
8/30/2017	 427,000 	 589,400 
8/31/2017	 **901,000** 	 684,800 
9/1/2017	 552,000 	 683,800 
9/5/2017	 774,000 	 639,800 
9/6/2017	 462,000 	 623,200 
9/7/2017	 491,000 	 636,000 
9/8/2017	 714,000 	 598,600 
9/11/2017	 492,000 	 586,600 
9/12/2017	 **725,000** 	 576,800 
9/13/2017	 **858,000** 	 656,000 
9/14/2017	 **1,218,000** 	 801,400 
9/15/2017	 **1,895,000** 	 1,037,600 
9/18/2017	 **11,737,000** 	day of Citron Report
9/19/2017	 3,100,000 	 3,761,600 
9/20/2017	 1,373,000 	 3,864,600 
9/21/2017	 866,000 	 3,794,200 
9/22/2017	 1,357,000 	 3,686,600 
9/25/2017	 1,240,000 	 1,587,200 
9/26/2017	 2,280,000 	day of Invesor Update
9/27/2017	 885,000 	 1,325,600 
9/28/2017	 472,000 	back to "normal" volume
9/29/2017	 379,000 	 1,051,200 
10/2/2017	 381,000 	 879,400 
10/3/2017	 682,000 	 559,800 
10/4/2017	 672,000 	 517,200 
10/5/2017	 799,000 	 582,600 
10/6/2017	 438,000 	 594,400 

From this volume data, it appears that Andrew Left (and any associated folks in the know of his plan) may have begun borrowing 
shares to short on 8/28, with some substantial loading up on 9/14 and 9/15, 
which would have almost certainly had to have been by folks with knowledge that Andrew Left/Citron was about to drop their 
"report" that Ubiquiti is a "total fraud" based on my deductive reasoning of the 
circumstantial evidence of the numbers above. I am about to hit the road to attend a wedding with my wife this weekend, 
but if someone would like to put together some similar numbers for Shopify and maybe some of Citron's other short attacks, 
I would guess similar patterns might be visible (likely not in 
this pronounced a fashion, however, due to UBNT's relatively tiny float).

As an additional point of observation, today sometime around 3:17 pm eastern there was what appears to be a single transaction of >90,000 shares of Ubiquiti (with total volume on the day of about 520,000 shares).

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On SHOP… I keep getting a foolish haiku when trying to post the table…

not sure this is as obvious as your UBNT example above but there are a couple notable volume spikes (8/10, 8/23, 8/24) in Aug at double and triple the rolling 5day avg.

i’ll dig around to see whether this is similar with other Citron shorts…


August spikes might have been a bit early for the Citron short (which hit on October 4th). That seems like it would have been a long holding period for Citron’s style.

right now I’m looking at TDG and EXAS, trying to filter out the news/earnings noise… definite vol spikes just ahead of the short announcements but they both have a lot of news.

this is easier in hindsight for sure…


As an additional point of observation, today sometime around 3:17 pm eastern there was what appears to be a single transaction of >90,000 shares of Ubiquiti (with total volume on the day of about 520,000 shares).

The above was for Oct. 9, 2017.

I noted today (October 10, 2017) that 111,000 shares of UBNT were traded in the 3:59 pm minute just before market close, out of a total volume on the day of 580,000 shares. No other minute on the day topped 8,000 shares. My first thought is that the >90,000 share block on 10/9 and the >110,000 share block on 10/10 could have possibly both been UBNT buy-backs and/or Robert Pera selling shares. Note that this month is when the Grizzlies ownership situation gets sorted out.