Portfolio Update 1/29/21 10PM
It’s been a month since I posted my last portfolio update found here; https://discussion.fool.com/retirementdough-dec-and-2020-portfol…
I have found doing these updates is helping me keep better records of my investing thought processes over time. Much like keeping a journal in life when you re-read in the future it helps you remember what your thoughts were at the time of writing. Hopefully others find this helpful as well.
Current Portfolio as of 1/29/21.
Change since 1/1/21 YTD 18.5%
VTI YTD 1.1%
I have decided to just benchmark versus the VTI which is Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, which is probably what I would put my money into if I did not want to spend time researching stocks. VTI includes all 3600 stocks traded in market.
Stock % Portfolio % Portfolio % Change Market % Change
Current Previous Portfolio Cap (B) MC
TCNNF 16.1 6.0 +10.1 4.7 0
EXPI 14.4 4.1 +10.3 7.1 +61.4
TDOC 13.9 12.1 +1.8 35.7 +22.9
ZM 10.9 8.6 +2.3 108.1 +9.5
DOCU 10.2 11.5 -1.3 43.2 +4.6
CRWD 8.7 13.6 -4.9 47.2 0
DDOG 8.3 11.0 -2.7 30.8 +1.6
GDRX 0 0.4 -0.4
LMND 0 0.2 -0.2
CASH 17.5 32.2 -17.7
New positions since last portfolio update: None
Exited positions since last update: GDRX, LMND
Trades between 1/1-1/29
Bought: 1/7 TCNNF 38.50
1/7 EXPI 63.00
1/7 ZM 349.64
1/8 TCNNF 37.14
Sold: 1/7 DDOG 94.25
1/7 GRDX 40.45
1/7 LMND 113.25
1/8 CRWD 224.99
1/26 EXPI 113.00
Thoughts on trades and companies for the month.
I did a major review of my portfolio over the new year’s holiday. It led me to decide to sell my small positions in GDRX and LMND. I also came out of that exercise with what I felt my position rankings should be in my portfolio.
I had ranked my positions in this order:
1 TCNNF
2 EXPI
3 TDOC
4 ZM & DOCU
5 CRWD
6 DDOG
So I made some buy and sells on 1/7 and 1/8 based on my convictions. I increased greatly my TCNNF and EXPI positions while holding steady on TDOC and DOCU, increasing ZM while reducing CRWD and DDOG.
What led to my rankings?
TCNNF number 1 position, overview of company can be found here https://discussion.fool.com/trulieve-update-34714389.aspx Current sales are 485m with market cap of 4.7B. It is calling for a 91% revenue growth y/y for next quarter, its GAAP gross margins are 65%. With democratic party gaining majority in house, senate and presidency legalization of cannabis is on the way. About to become legal in US to bank and the stock will trade on the US exchanges. When that happens the value of this high growth, profitable company will sky rocket IMO. Does have some debt, very manageable amount considering cash flows.
EXPI number 2 position, self proclaimed amazon of real estate. First company in real estate market to utilize cloud based technology to operate. Significant reduction of cost which are passed on to agents making them very popular and quickly growing real estate brokerage. Current sales are 1,480m with market cap of 7.1B. Sales revenue predicted to grow 99 y/y next quarter. Gross margin low compared to all of my other companies at 9.9%. Huge TAM. Very little debt. Major international expansion ongoing.
TDOC number 3 position. Much discussed on this board. I was on record last month saying I thought it had the most potential for 2021 appreciation. Current sales of 867.1m and market cap of 35.1B. Sales revenue growth next quarter predicted at 109.3% y/y. 62.7% gross margins. Has some debt.
ZM is my 4th position. Overly discussed stock on the boards. Sales revenue at 1,960m and market cap at 108B. Sales revenue growth predicted at 333% next quarter y/y. Gross margin of 70%. No debt. Just raise 2B dollars. I just feel it will continue to grow (obviously not as fast as 2020) and its margins are good, with no debt and a boat load of money to do deals/buyouts. I full expect it to end 2021 higher than it began. I do understand why many feel that the growth will slow tremendously if just relying on video. Although the company was growing rapidly before Covid and their sales internationally seem to be up considerably still.
DOCU is my 5th position. Sales at 1,300m with market cap of 43.2B. Projected revenue growth for next quarter is 50% y/y and it has a 74.5 percent gross margin. This product is one that I use more and more every day in my business. Has some debt. Slowest revenue grower in my portfolio.
CRWD is my 6th position. I reduced quite a bit early this month and used those proceeds to put into EXPI and TCNNF looks like a brilliant move at this point. CRWD sales are 761.6m, should grow revenue around 70% next quarter y/y. Gross margin is 72.9 percent. It’s market cap is 47.2B. Not debt.
DDOG is my 7th position. I also reduced. Its current revenue is 539.6m, increase in revenue predicted to be 50% next quarter (this has been highly debated on boards as being most likely low) and has a gross margin of 78.7 percent. Very little debt.
When I evaluated these companies, I took a look at current revenue, growth rate of revenue, gross margin and market cap. Then I ranked them based on what I felt was the best value for growth currently. I made some buys and sells based on that. It has only been a few weeks and it is hard to say how these moves will turn out in long term. I will say that the early results are encouraging. Below is percent gain for each company for the month.
My ranks versus what the magnitude of return has been only differed by my top three stocks. EXPI jumped considerably and led even though I had it ranked number two. When cannabis gets legalized (and now I am certain it will) I believe TCNNF will outpace all others as it will be listed on the American stock exchange. It also will be able to restructure its loans at normal business rates reducing interest expense and increasing profitability and cash flows.
Percent gain/loss for company for month & year
EXPI 68.7%
TDOC 32.0%
TCNNF 23.0%
ZM 9.3%
DOCU 4.7%
CRWD 2.8%
DDOG 1.2%
I did lighten up 20% of my EXPI position at end of month as it had run up so fast that it became largest holding in my portfolio so I trimmed my position to where it currently resides. I have no plans on selling any stocks soon and am looking for opportunity to put some of the cash I have on sidelines to work into a new stock idea. So far nothing has caught my interest.
As always any suggestions or questions on portfolio structure feel free to email me. Any questions on why I like or dislike certain companies post it to the board with exception of TCNNF (just email me on that one).