Robotaxis Won’t Be a Real Business for at Least Five Years

No - between 21 and 7 states.

To put this back in the context of the thread, we’re talking about a robotaxi business. So a state that allows autonomous driving but requires a licensed driver in the front seat won’t work for a robotaxi service. The taxis have to be able to travel from one fare to another without a driver in the car. Similarly, a state like California allows robotaxis - but subject to such restrictions and “proof of concept” that it will pose a substantial barrier to a new entrant (like Tesla) trying to get up to scale. It took Waymo two and a half years of regulatory oversight before they could expand from SF to LA - and only to a modest test area subject to severe speed limitations at that.

It’s not a binary, where a state either forbids all autonomous vehicles for all purposes ever or that state permits robotaxis to grow into a “real business” as fast as the company can manage. There are only a few states where the regulations broadly permit autonomous vehicles without a licensed driver present in the car. Most states have significant regulatory barriers that will have to be removed before you can grow a robotaxi into a real business at scale (let alone support enough robotaxis to absorb the volume of a full production line).

But the petition was filed a year and a half before their license was pulled. Why did they file a petition in the first place, if the regulations allow a car without manual controls? Why didn’t NHTSA just grant the petition immediately - or just declare it moot and approve the car - if the regulations allow for it already?