I am currently in Soller, an ancient small seaport on north coast of Mallorca where husband and I lived for 6 years last decade.
Suddenly, as July kicked in and Russian schools finished term, the cafes and restaurants on the small town plaza are remarkably busy serving Russian vacationers, mostly parents accompanying their late teens into early twenties offspring.
Hmmmmm…
david fb
Given the war against Ukraine…how are these Russians being received?
My favorite spot on the plaza is Sa Granja, and they are always impeccably friendly and courteous to everyone. However, the Russian mother and son seated near me today that triggered my post were clearly uncomfortable and spoke as quietly as they could, and general opinion as I read it off the faces of the various European Union type tourists near me explained why.
I am very fond of Russians, and the draft age physicist student grandson of one of my best friends is very dear to me and I fear for him as much as I fear for the Ukrainians.
One of my long ago Ukrainian lovers, now about 55 years old and doing “how to use your cell phones to augment secure communication” training courses on the front lines, wrote me three weeks ago that “We must survive June, re-group in July, and win in August.” He was assuming the USA would come through with massive aid in the form of advanced artillery and short range rocketry.
david fb
I am very fond of Russians, and the draft age physicist student grandson of one of my best friends is very dear to me and I fear for him as much as I fear for the Ukrainians.
One of my long ago Ukrainian lovers, now about 55 years old and doing “how to use your cell phones to augment secure communication” training courses on the front lines, wrote me three weeks ago that “We must survive June, re-group in July, and win in August.” He was assuming the USA would come through with massive aid in the form of advanced artillery and short range rocketry.
If history is a guide, I suspect your friend’s grandson is safe for now. In the FSU and in Russia today, conscription is mandatory, but the elites have always managed to avoid it. In the 1980s Gorbachev tried to reform the draft to make it more equitable, but received enormous political backlash from the powered elites. This backlash is sometimes cited as one of the causes of the fall of the Soviet Union.
Because this is a “special operation” and not a war, Putin can’t legally send conscripts to Ukraine. There have been reports of conscripts being sent, but in theory at least Russia for now is relying on professional soldiers on contracts. Putin is unlikely to make a broader call up in order to avoid Gorbachev’s fate.
Your Ukrainian friend’s time table seems optimistic, but maybe not. Russian military logistics are probably the worst in the world. Russia has an enormous shortage of trucks, relying primarily on railroads for transport. This forces Russia to place supply depots relatively close to the front lines so troops can be resupplied with a minimum number of trucks. Starting roughly this weekend, social media has been filled with pictures and videos of exploding Russian ammo dumps. This is almost certainly due to western-supplied guided rocket munitions. If Russia begins to suffer ammunition shortages the whole thing might crack open.