Formally true although it had seen much lower levels right after the start of their ‚special operation‘. After that, the rather shrewd lady who runs their CB managed to take the currency to levels much higher than before the invasion. It is only now the Rubel seems to be weakening again… perhaps a turning point.
The US paper is being sold off as a a trade to buy the Yen and EUR.
When the long end of the US yield curve rises this all gets snapped. The USD will appreciate again. That happens either when the FED decides or later when the flight to safety going on right now ends. Both situations are closely related.
All the major currencies internal to themselves are appreciating. That might not be true for the RMB.
All currency values are relative ratios. As the US dollar interest rate increases, it would normally attract a carry trade which would tend to push the USD up (pushing the stock market lower) in relation to other currencies, despite domestic inflation. The Fed’s lending desk as well as other tools at their disposal (like currency swaps with other central banks) allows them to tweak the system.
In the meantime, apparently Russia’s cache of hard currency is reduced by sanctions to a level which has dropped the price of the Rubel (as more of them are required to buy a greenback) as well as having them fall back to selling gold to fund the war. That said, I suspect much of that action is to China (who is happy to acquire more gold by offloading USD paper to Russia, thus mitigating a potential substantial price increase.
China can not willy nilly sell the USD because the RMB is pegged to the USD.
I get diplomats are polite but China never grew up economically and depegged.
While buying gold is of interest for some parties and central banks it is not central to anything much.
The Japanese and Europeans are selling our paper. The JPY and EUR are appreciating.
Meanwhile the market is buying the long end of the curve as a flight to safety.
The western currencies are appreciating internally. In real terms inflation comprables y/y will be dropping. Not enough to matter. Only the US/Mexico retooling can truly bring down global inflation.
China has a problem. We can dictate China pay more for Russian oil while keeping the price steady to India. The way to dictate Russia should get more from China is to tell both of them we allow for a higher price to China. Such a shock would scramble the Chinese economy.
China’s gambit that the country would get large enough economically to reverse the peg meaning in affect the USD was pegged to the RMB has failed.
That is why China is turning inward. That and not enough water to keep an outward facing economy. We must become the manufacturing global powerhouse.
There is no reason for China to actually fight with us. There are reasons for Xi to have enemies as props. I do not trust Xi he is scummy along with his purges.