https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/16/politics/russia-sanctions… Senior US officials tell CNN they are disappointed US-led sanctions haven’t had a bigger impact so far on the Russian economy andare now predicting that the harshest effects probably won’t materialize until early next year at the earliest.
largely to record-setting revenues it has reaped in the spring and summer from soaring energy prices. In the first 100 days of the war, Russia earned a record 93 billion euros in revenue by exporting oil, gas and coal, according to the Finnish Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Russia’s economy still shrunk by about 4% between April and June as compared to the same period last year. But that’s nowhere near the 15% decline that some had expected earlier in the year.
“We were expecting that things like SWIFT and all the blocking sanctions on Russia’s banks would totally crater the Russian economy and that basically, by now going into September, we’d be dealing with an economically much more weakened Russia than the one that we are dealing with," said one senior US official, referring to the US and European decision to cut some Russian banks off from the SWIFT international banking system.
So another failed policy to add to our failed wars of this century. Washington failed to realize that China & India would be buying beaucoup amounts of oil & gas at fire sale pricing Russia offered to them. And likely that the predicted impact on the Russia economy by next year is a guess. And so it goes.
Sorry to rain on your sunny day but the Kremlin this month started running in the red.
Printing is the only options…hyperinflation is next. The “results next year” means the Russians actually removing Putin. As opposed to cheap talk about anything else having to do with Russia.
https://www.city-journal.org/europe-is-losing-the-energy-war… Wars are fought on many fronts. So far, Russian president Vladimir Putin is winning the energy war. High energy prices, triggered by supply disruptions, have neutered Western sanctions. Russia’s current account balance stands at record highs. Meantime, the same forces are de-industrializing Europe right before our eyes. Industry after industry is throttling back, shutting down, or considering doing so if the energy chaos continues. Britain is staring at the potential shutdown of 60 percent* of its manufacturers. Germany and most of Europe are on the same track.
Europe doesn’t have many options to deal with the immediate shortages. Essentially everything that can be done quickly has been done
What some hope to happen to Russia currently it is not. That is not to say it won’t happen. But it will more difficult as there is NOT a united front (India & China) sanctions.
There may be a perception that I am cheering for the Russians. I’m not but look at the situation realistically & pragmatically. Russia has been knocked back militarily by the Ukraine counter-offensive. Will the Ukraine be able to exploit their gains? It remains to be seen. I’m sure the Ukraine planning staff is working on a plan as are the Russia planning staff is working on a counter-strike.
It would behoove to remember our own war. The Union had the industrial might but the South had the best military leadership while the Union side had p*ss poor military leadership until Lincoln found Grant the summer of 1863 & promoted him to command of the Union army in March 1864. And Grant found a kindred spirit in General Sherman in his Vicksburg campaign.
I think the military equipment supply for the Ukraine will only improve & increase in the future but the US industrial might has to wake up & orders must be placed. It was just last week that an order for javelins was placed by congress. More orders are sure to follow I’m sure for other items to replaced dispensed equipment already sent and used by the Ukrainians and destroyed by the Russians.
This war will be costly for the Russians & Ukrainians & the EU. This war very well may have some surprises in the future
Western press reports have portrayed Ukraine’s “lightning offensive,” as it’s invariably called, as a major turning point in the war. Nearly all of them use the word “humiliating” to describe Russia’s loss of the area. Russian defenses “collapsed” and they “fled in panic,” we’re told. This was widely attributed to the supposed “exhaustion” and “low morale” of Russian troops. As a result, the battle lines have been “redrawn,” the war’s contours “reshaped.” Putin is said to be “livid and “isolated.” In the maximalist language of the Atlantic Council, the “Ukrainian victory shatter[ed] Russia’s reputation as a military superpower.”
There’s a fair amount of wishful thinking in all of this rhetoric. Since April, it has been clear that Putin, after failing to take Kyiv and Kharkiv, pivoted to a downsized Plan B of securing a land bridge to Crimea in the south. Not only can this be gleaned from a glance at a map of troop movements, but Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said so explicitly in July.
Going forward, the success or failure of that strategic gambit is how the regime in Moscow will define victory or defeat. And Ukraine’s retaking of the Kharkiv countryside will have little significant effect on Russia’s ability to hold critical southern port cities like Kherson, Melitopol, Mariupol, and Berdyansk. At this point, Kharkiv is not nearly as important an objective as Mykolaiv or Odesa. The Russians can easily make do without the Izium railway.
Perhaps the collapse of the Russian army & removal Putin are more wishful thinking than a realistic appraisal of the situation on the ground. We’ll see.