S&P in Years When 1st day +1% Loss

Not that one can predict the year from a single (first day), but Yahoo had an article on this.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-happens-stocks-walloped-…

Note that the bad years had reasons for them:
1930s: Great Depression
1957: Worldwide Influenza Pandemic
1978: Oil Shock
2001: Dot Com Bubble/911
2008: Housing Bubble

2016 possible contagions:

  • China Slowdown
  • Islamic Terror
  • US Debt
  • Student Debt
  • US Presidential Election

In itself, it doesn’t seem to be a negative indicator.

-Bob

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Great article. To sum up, when the stock market opens the year down, stocks will either go up or down for the remainder of the month and year.

Got it. :slight_smile:

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Great article. To sum up, when the stock market opens the year down, stocks will either go up or down for the remainder of the month and year.

Got it. :slight_smile:

That is MY prediction. Stocks will go up and down or vice versa.

Cheers
Qazulight

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Yogi Berra once said…

It is tough to make predictions…
…especially about the future.

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Don’t forget this…

DEFINITION of ‘Super Bowl Indicator’
An indicator based on the belief that a Super Bowl win for a team from the old AFL (AFC division) foretells a decline in the stock market for the coming year, and a win for a team from the old NFL (NFC division) means the stock market will be up for the year.

**Patriots won last year!

BREAKING DOWN ‘Super Bowl Indicator’
Though historically speaking the Super Bowl indicator boasts an 80% accuracy rate, remember the old maxim: correlation does not imply causation. In 2008, despite the New York Giants (NFC division) winning the Super Bowl (indicating a Bull Market), the stock market suffered one of the largest downturns since the Great Depression. Though the indicator is an interesting take on predicting the stock market, by no means should the correlation dictate an individual’s portfolio construction.

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But my theory is that this is backwards, because
“as goes the first week in January, goes January”
then
“as goes January, goes the year”
Therefore the superbowl is determined by the first week in January. So I am betting all my money on the AFC if this week ends down :wink:

Sorry for the OT post, could not resist.

FYI, please start posts like this with “OT:”
thanks

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