Note that the bad years had reasons for them:
1930s: Great Depression
1957: Worldwide Influenza Pandemic
1978: Oil Shock
2001: Dot Com Bubble/911
2008: Housing Bubble
2016 possible contagions:
China Slowdown
Islamic Terror
US Debt
Student Debt
US Presidential Election
In itself, it doesn’t seem to be a negative indicator.
DEFINITION of ‘Super Bowl Indicator’
An indicator based on the belief that a Super Bowl win for a team from the old AFL (AFC division) foretells a decline in the stock market for the coming year, and a win for a team from the old NFL (NFC division) means the stock market will be up for the year.
**Patriots won last year!
BREAKING DOWN ‘Super Bowl Indicator’
Though historically speaking the Super Bowl indicator boasts an 80% accuracy rate, remember the old maxim: correlation does not imply causation. In 2008, despite the New York Giants (NFC division) winning the Super Bowl (indicating a Bull Market), the stock market suffered one of the largest downturns since the Great Depression. Though the indicator is an interesting take on predicting the stock market, by no means should the correlation dictate an individual’s portfolio construction.
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But my theory is that this is backwards, because
“as goes the first week in January, goes January”
then
“as goes January, goes the year”
Therefore the superbowl is determined by the first week in January. So I am betting all my money on the AFC if this week ends down
Sorry for the OT post, could not resist.
FYI, please start posts like this with “OT:”
thanks