Futures show that the S&P500 is set to open at an all-time high this morning. This will reset mungofitch’s 99-day indicator.
DB2
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didnt a new high need to be made on May 29? that didnt happen, no new high was made since February 19
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It hasn’t happened. Having said that, there are a few days left.
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It is 99 trading days, so it hasn’t expired yet.
DB2
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Thanks for clarification. I didn’t do trading days, just days in general. Ooooof
So, mungofitch‘s indicator is now officially reset…
… It‘s a bull!!
Of course, looking from my European investor‘s perspective, it is not at all:
(Falling dollar plus tariffs… what makes me think inflation is in your future?)
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Mungofitch talks about it at Shrewdm. He delivers a cautionary tale about how expensive the markets are this time around. A good read.
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US stocks are pricey and US economy is weak:
- rising continuing unemployment claims
- consumer spending growth near zero to slightly negative ytd for 2025
but, there is a group of people with so much $ they need a place to put it, so asset prices march up
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I personally have begun a shift from U.S. equities to international. It is intended to be a longer term increase in my international position as compared to my U.S. allocation. But uncertainty is my middle name.
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The market has broaden from just tech stocks.
The AI energy trade has taken off too, with Vistra Corp (VST) and NRG Energy (NRG) up more than 80%. The AI cloud trade has emerged as well, with Oracle (ORCL) up more than 70% and trading at an all-time high.
It’s an AI and tech bull market, not the “Magnificent Seven” bull market.
“Despite the near-term uncertainty,” he wrote, “the four elements that end bull markets [a recession, Fed hikes, spiking bond yields, and extreme stock valuations] are all absent.”
So this bull run has legs. But all bull runs eventually end up in the slaughter yards.
2001, 2008
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Deflation
Here we are. Three months from now will look very different. No sudden movements, but ODDS ARE this market is lower.
That is not exactly true.
recession…construction has fallen off and equity is not there for lending
Fed hikes? Trump is right the FED already has rates too high
spiking bond yields? Recent history that can get acute as the beautiful budget bill passes
extreme stock valuations…hell yes we have that.
Absent? A care in the world on Wall Street. They must be cashing in. What they don’t care for is you.
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The article says these stocks as a group are up 70%. NVDA and AMD are up 40% and 45% from their lows of this year.