SAM: Boston Beer CA

After hitting high of 1350, in last Aril steadily declining, today @$426, right back at jan 2020 level. The raise in share price is due to their success in Hard Seltzer and the decline is also due to the challenge in that segment. I am not interested in this price, but will keep an eye if the decline continues and goes to or below $300. They have increased their sales per share by 5x in the last 10 years, yet their profits are only up 2x. In other words their margins have come down. If operating margin reverts to mid-teen (here I am taking a bow to mean-revisionists :slight_smile: ) the earnings to increase significantly. Given their low # of outstanding shares and float, expect some explosive moves in share price.

Before all that the share price has to get cheap, so you get a decent entry price.

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The stock declined 3.4% during regular trading and another 7.5% in after hours after the results. I am bit surprised it dropped only 7.5% in AH. The results are ugly, but expected, the hard seltzer is doing real bad.

Everyday the stock is marching towards $300. Patience is the name of the game.

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1st Qtr results in and the stock is down 5%. The only thing positive about this quarter is soon, y-o-y comparisons will look better than the current 20% declines… Waiting.

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if the decline continues and goes to or below $300

So far stock is steadily declining, and the bad news on the business side is still trickling in. I expect another 1 or 2 quarters of falling volumes. Sometimes stock turns around ahead of business, DLTR did that, so far no sign of that.

Watching paint dry…