# Saul, did I do it right?

I’m hoping, fingers crossed, to become a Ticker Guide. One company I hold shares in that there is no TG for is Polaris.

I just figured up the 1YPEG

Did I do it right?

3/31/15 earnings 1.30, year ago 1.19
12/31/14 1.98, yr ago, 1.56
9/30/14 2.06, yr ago, 1.64
6/30/14, 1.42, yr ago, 1.13

Trailing earnings 6.76, yr ago, 5.52

Stock price on 4/24/15 was \$141.59

PE is 20.94

Increase in earnings is \$1.24

Growth rate is 22.46%

1YPEG is 0.93

This is my first time doing this calculation. Did I do it right?

If so, how does this investment look to you all based on this?

mazske

6 Likes

mazske,

I didn’t double check the actual earnings numbers or stock price you gave, but I did check the math you did with them, and it all looks right to me.

If so, how does this investment look to you all based on this?

The 1YPEG (what I would call TTM PEG) being pretty close to 1.0 says the stock price is about fairly valued (unless there’s something outside these numbers that suggests the growth rate will change significantly).

A growth rate of 22.46% is OK. If they maintain that growth rate, you’d expect the stock to go up about 22% per year. But I suspect Saul would prefer to look for a company with a little higher growth rate.

-Mark

1 Like

I didn’t double check the actual earnings numbers or stock price you gave, but I did check the math you did with them, and it all looks right to me.

I took the numbers from the Investors page on Polaris website. Polaris calls the number the diluted net income per share. I assume that is the correct number to use for earnings.

I do hope I did it correctly.

The 1YPEG (what I would call TTM PEG) being pretty close to 1.0 says the stock price is about fairly valued (unless there’s something outside these numbers that suggests the growth rate will change significantly).

Polaris is just slightly under 1.0, so I guess it appears they are fairly priced at the moment.

A growth rate of 22.46% is OK. If they maintain that growth rate, you’d expect the stock to go up about 22% per year. But I suspect Saul would prefer to look for a company with a little higher growth rate.

Saul is making around 30% a year. My XIRR according to My Scorecard has me at 20.73%.

Now, Polaris pays a dividend of 1.45%. So, that increases the returns a bit.

If you look at my post on Corning, if I did it correct, the growth rate is either 24 or 29%, depending on which earnings are used.

Then, the 1YPEG is either .4473 or .6034.

So, its a better price according to that.

Plus, the dividend on Corning is at 2.11%, so all the better.

Based on my analysis, if I did it correctly, Corning seems to be the better investment at the moment. Of course, they have earnings being released on Tuesday, so things could change.

Corning has been around for something like 164 years. I think I read recently they signed with some car company to use Gorilla Glass in theory windshields. If that is true, that should help increase earnings for Corning.

Any thoughts?

mazske

1 Like