It’s like this, Saul. I’m a T/A advocate. Not an F/A guy.
But I realize the importance of continued dd, even into rumor, when you’re dealing with any company in which you invest.
For instance, who among America’s franchise owners of a Subway shop one-year ago would have ever dreamed their feted and well-loved spokesperson, Jared, would receive a 15-year, 8-month prison sentence on 19 Nov 15 for pedophilia and pederasty?
Do you remember when the story began to leak? Subway customers criticized Subway for “abandoning” Jared.
At that point in time, he wasn’t charged with anything . . . yet. Although, when the FBI raids your home, that’s never a good sign “everything is going to be alright.”
Had Subway been traded on an exchange, I think that day, the stock would have taken a major hit and would have continued to crater as each new development took place.
Whether Subway brass knew about Jared’s sick predilection, who knows? You work off what you read.
These things happen.
You can’t know everything going on behind the scenes. You have to work (as an F/A type) off what you trust is truthful and forthcoming financial information - and news - which you guys do in spades over here.
I have differences of opinion with most of you about “entry” positions on a load of these stocks, as I also worry about Macro-Economic portends and what I see on my charts.
But I steer clear of disrupting this board where many of these “picks” are out-performing where I thought they would be today.
I trade. I only “invest” free shares made by gains off successful trades. And if they are dividend payers, I let those “free” shares compound.
I’m not going over to the BOFI board as I’ve never posted there. I would be disruptive, I think.
But those posters over there who are still “true believers” would do well to read directly the things you just enumerated here moments ago, and then re-read both well-documented pieces by this SA writer, Aurelius. Then they should ask themselves if they still feel comfortable about this company’s prospects when so much of the hyper-growth comes from a “middle man” company that has thrown caution to the wind?
You got the right defensive look for something like this company, Saul. You’ve changed your optimism to pessimism. That takes stones.
You don’t marry any company facing these mounting problems. You move on, find something better.
You’re not to be faulted. You ran a very good screen to find this company earlier on and invest in it while the going was still good.
You got cold feet on this a few weeks ago. You bought back in, a much tinier position (or maybe not, I don’t keep up with this board like most people here.) And here you are tonight, you’ve taken bits and pieces (your enumeration a few posts ago) and come up with a new picture that doesn’t jibe with your original F/A or your recent “wait and see” cautious optimism/pessimism. (Ha, I don’t what to call your selling and then wait and see. But you get my drift, you still continued to follow this story. Good on you.)
You’ve done the right thing with your warnings.
Again, I believe sell side analysts will be caught flat footed here. And remember, some of these guys follow this company and maybe a few more, far fewer than you and this board try and follow day to day. You’ve struck before the downgrades. These sell side analysts will not be reacting as quickly as you tonight, nor will they give your readers of this board this loud warning you’ve given this evening.
I say good work on your behalf. I mean that.
I wish I had your smarts back when I lost over 90% on satellite radio stocks that I “knew better than the analysts.” I knew the sat radio stories backward and forward, and discussed each little milestone with investors on the old Yahoo boards for XMSR and SIRI. I fell in love with the sat radio stories. And there wasn’t a single investor over there warning us about the debt for equity swap, the ex-CEO’s past (of Sirius), faulty satellite reception upon launch, etc. Had someone done that, we would have shouted them down.
Here, you’ve done a service sharing your mind, the mind of a seasoned investor whom from the get go has explained he doesn’t “marry” these stocks. You sell when the good story changes. You even lighten up when one of your positions becomes too big in your port.
You share your savvy, your convictions, and doubts, for free.
I don’t know what more anyone could ask for, where you share your picks and F/A.
You’ve done right in my mind.