http://mreverydaydollar.com/saul-rosenthal/
Saul:
When you say ‘right’ or ‘wrong’, how do you conclude that? If it is by the outcome i.e. the stock price after a certain time then you need to clarify the time frame, no? in any enterprise, there will be set backs but the important thing I think is to understand the direction. In business, we talk glowingly about ‘vision’ and how the ‘vision’ is getting realized. But most often it is just a rough and tumble kind of activity whereby opportunities are seized or missed. At any rate, in order to qualify an investment as ‘right’ or ‘wrong’, there ought to be an initial thesis one would follow and some sort of indications that it is on track or derailed. This is hard to assess because a momentary derailment could be just that- momentary while the main path is still unaffected. We make this distinction between ‘momentary’ and ‘terminal’ but those are all qualifiers we would apply on hindsight. I never can say that one knows in the moment.
I think when I go into an investment I would need to think that there is a pathway for several years, and a few quarters of bad news would not necessarily qualify as being wrong in the bigger scheme of the thesis. But I think it is hard to know in the moment. You sound (and I may be wrong) that you are more willing to jump out at any sign of trouble. Being nimble in and out could have some advantages and I guess that is why you want to keep your number of stocks low.
It is always hard to play it over the shorter term. Yes I read you. You do not think you are a trader or a short term investor but jumping in and out requires some kind of focus on the short term. This can be dizzying and one can lose the thread or the bigger picture. But apparently you do not. You fight hard for your gains.
I suspect you would disagree with my characterization of your investment style.
But you often magically got out ‘in time’ or at a near high. You are focus on the numbers. Are you mainly taking cues from these numbers to decide when to get out or in?
I did not understand why you went in Amazon given your style. I read your post when you got in but Amazon still has a very high PE which is not what you typically invest in. What made you asides from them posting positive earnings recently? They can very quickly swing to the other side given how Bezos operates. Would you then start to sell? Or would you sell on the basis that it is somehow over extended for whatever reason?
You can say that you do not have a particular style. You just do whatever works. That is fine to say but there should still be a process or thinking behind doing something different.
tj