I’ve noticed that the number of posts and rec count on Saul’s board has declined quite a bit.
Has SaaS reverted to the mean, and lost the interest of investors?
intercst
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It’s too early to say whether the “story line” of high-priced SaaS stocks will hold up and their prices recover over time. Meanwhile, the volatility will be wild and crazy. Many investors can’t deal with that – including me, which is why I stay away from them.
Wendy
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I’ve often thought that the activity level on Saul’s board can be used to see/indicate a
market/sector topping selloff in the near future.
It has nothing to do with Saul and the regular posters there, they are pretty rock solid
in their convictions. But when they are getting all kinds of newcomers making somewhat
inane posts, might be a good indicator of FOMO at work. It was kind of funny reading
some of the posts during the recent slide, one poster stating that Saul was shirking
his responsibilities to the readers of the board by not posting more about how to handle
a drawdown. They acted like Saul was running a paid subscription service for them all, lol.
He’s just a guy posting on the net, he doesn’t owe anybody anything.
I signed up for a year of a paid service that specializes in cloud/data/tech, and it has
a market timer guy “providing insight” as to the direction of the market. It was
bewilderingly funny. I’ve never read anything that was such circular logic, it was useless
to me. Needless to say, I won’t be renewing that subscription.
11 Likes
UpNorthJoe writes,
I signed up for a year of a paid service that specializes in cloud/data/tech, and it has
a market timer guy “providing insight” as to the direction of the market. It was
bewilderingly funny. I’ve never read anything that was such circular logic, it was useless
to me. Needless to say, I won’t be renewing that subscription.
The only guys with a verifiable record of “secret sauce” are the crew of PhD mathematicians that run the Medallion Fund. (No Harvard MBAs need apply, they won’t hire them.) Of course, that fund has been closed to new investors since 1993. Which proves the old caveat on investment advice, “If the advice was actually any good, they’d keep it to themselves and makes millions, rather than sell it to you for a $200 subscription.”
Famed Medallion Fund “Stretches . . . Explanation to the Limit,” Professor Claims
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1k2fymby99nj0…
In a paper, UCLA professor Bradford Cornell raises questions
about how Renaissance Technologies’ flagship fund could
produce 66 percent gross returns since inception. Others —
including some who advised him on the paper — are less skeptical.
By Cornell’s estimation, Medallion’s apparent trading skill would have turned a $100 investment in the fund at the start of 1988 into $398,723,873 by the end of 2018. “In 31 years, Medallion would have turned a $100 investment into a $400 million fortune,” Cornell writes.
By comparison, $100 invested in the stock market at the beginning of 1988 — using the Center for Research in Security Prices’ value-weighted index — would have grown to $1,910 over the same time period, with dividends reinvested.
intercst
4 Likes
Has SaaS reverted to the mean,
Which mean?
People don’t seem to realize that a 50% downdraft in high growth stocks is quite normal. Wendy has it right, if you can’t deal with the volatility then growth investing is not for you. Investing is not an escalator to Financial Heaven.
Recently a uTuber said exactly what I was thinking. If you own 1% of Tesla and the stock price goes down, you still own 1% of Tesla provided you did not sell. Better yet, if you have cash you can buy some more at a discount. Furthermore you can trade the growth stock about its own mean – you just need confidence and patience and a bit of TA.
The Captain
8 Likes
Better yet, if you have cash you can buy some more at a discount.
The same thing can be said of an ETF like ARKK as we bought in cheap watched it climb and then fall but it still is not as low as when we first bought our shares. Would it have been nice to sell at the peak? Yeah, but we have no need to sell now and we are in it for the long term. A another plus is we have used the dip to buy some more.
This was another tip I learned from the FOOL about buying over time and dollar cost averaging.
OTFoolish
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