Portfolio as at 19.03.19
This is my first post of my current portfolio on Saul’s board. I have found the process of creating this post highly beneficial, and it has helped me make some further adjustments to my portfolio.
I have a non-US bias in my portfolio, but interestingly, there is little difference in the performance of my US and non-US portfolios over the past three months. Comparing the two portfolios has helped me identify areas to improve / refine each set of investments, and the competitive tension I think will lead to better investment decisions. I am now highly motivated to ensure my Non-US portfolio can keep pace with my current US portfolio. Achieving Saul like returns outside the US is a great challenge and opportunity.
My investments are made via our superannuation trust (retirement fund) and our family trust. I have combined the holdings of these two trusts and have split the portfolio into two. US and non-US holdings. I thought my non-US holdings would be of some interest, and includes names that are not mentioned on this board.
One Non-US name that really jumps out for me as a “Saul stock” is Wisetech Global (WTC : ASX). My holding is simply not where it should be when you look at the quality of the business. I could do a deep dive for those interested.
My approach is to take a more cautious approach to buying and selling, so I tend to change positions less frequently than other posters on this board, but the past 3 months have been an exception, as I have done a bit of a clear out. I have also learnt that I simply have too many holdings, and there are too many for me to follow effectively. I have reduced the number of positions I hold by 10.
This review has helped me identify a few other positions that I will exit in the near term. So, I expect the number of positions to continue to fall.
So here goes:
Current cash position (12.5%)
This is quite high for me, and it was 0% around Christmas, as I went shopping for bargains. It is likely to increase if the market continues on its current upward trajectory, and I take the opportunity to pull a few more weeds. I use cash as a hedge in my portfolio.
US Portfolio
No. 1 – TTD (7.3%)
• Market leader and innovator outside walled gardens
• Top US position due to steep valuation discount in December.
• Sector tailwinds, high margins, high growth.
• Keep an eye on: Walled gardens, disrupters, agencies starting up own platforms, Chinese adventure.
No. 2 – TWLO (6.2%)
• Market leader and innovator
• Developer tailwinds.
• Sector tailwinds, high margins, high growth.
• Keep an eye on: gross margins, customer acquisition costs, changes in growth trajectory.
No.3 – MDB (5.3%)
• Undisputed market leader.
• Accelerating growth, with Atlas now driving faster growth. Crossing the chasm???
• Major transition to NoSQL database in the early stages.
• Keep an eye on competition from AMZN, and GOOGL. Watch for issues with Atlas (reliability/security/onboarding).
• INCREASE POSITION (TARGET WEIGHTING 6-7%)
No.4 – SQ (4.1%)
• Market disrupter, optionality galore.
• Software business is growth driver.
• Keep an eye on competition from “local” incumbents (usually banks), lending / financing risk. Watch for declining growth or issues with onboarding merged companies.
No. 5 – AYX (3.9%)
• Undisputed market leader.
• Continuing strong growth.
• Keep an eye on competition from Tableau or the like.
• INCREASE POSITION (TARGET WEIGHTING 5-6%)
No. 6 – FB (2.7%)
• Leading social media platform.
• Growth slowing, regulatory risks, taxation risks.
• Holding to retain daughter’s interest in investing.
• REDUCE POSITION (TARGET WEIGHTING 1-2%)
No. 7 – NTNX (2.3%)
• Leading product innovator in cloud software.
• Significant sales stumble.
• Keep an eye on competition.
• POSITION UNDER REVIEW FOLLOWING “INVESTOR DAY”
No. 8 – OKTA (1.3%)
• Undisputed market leader in identity / sign-on as a service.
• New product innovations increasing TAM.
• Strong growth.
• Keep an eye on new product adoption, net revenue per customer expansion. Questions regarding size of TAM.
• INCREASE POSITION (TARGET WEIGHTING 4%)
No. 9 – ZS (1.3%)
• Undisputed market leader.
• Accelerating growth, and huge TAM
• Keep an eye on competition. Although competition hindered by legacy products, and fear of market cannibalism.
• INCREASE POSITION (TARGET WEIGHTING 6-7%)
Positions sold since January 1, 2019:
I sought to reduce my “de-worsificiation”, and offloaded all my china themed holdings – simply too much risk there, and sold ANET, NVDA, and PAYC due to slowing growth. I also reduced NTNX, and will review the remained of my NTNX holdings over the coming weeks.
• BAIDU
• JD.com
• NVDA
• ANET
• PAYC
• TCEHY
• NTNX (35% of holdings)
Positions acquired since January 1, 2019. Positions I added to include:
• NTNX (pre report fail)
• TWLO
• SQ
• APX – new position
• OKTA – new position
Percentage of US stocks in Portfolio = 34.4%
US Portfolio Return since January 1, 2019 = 36.4% (includes currency loss -0.71%)
Non- US portfolio
Appen -APX (ASX) – (7.4%)
• AI Data feeder.
• 100% annual profit and revenue growth
• Consistently beats guidance.
• Establishing top dog status through strategic acquisitions (competitive threats)
• Threats – Watch out for AI disruption to service. Look out for top customers DIYing (akin to UBER and twilio).
Altium -ALU (ASX) – (6.7%)
• Chip design software company.
• Top dog / market leader
• IoT is a huge tailwind for the company.
• Strong cashflow.
• Revenue growth of 24%, but net profit growth of 58% due to operational leverage. EBITDA Margin expansion at about 10-20% pa.
Xero – XRO (ASX) – (6.3%)
• Leading SAAS accounting platform.
• Pure cloud play (unlike INTUIT).
• Revenue growth = 37% pa ; gross margins = 82.8% !
• Top dog in AUS, NZ, and UK.
• Watch performance in USA (Intuit fighting back hard), watch to see UK growth and dominance continues.
Nearmap - NEA (ASX) – (5.9%)
• Leading SAAS geospatial service in Australia. Hyper growth in USA.
• First mover.
• 45% revenue growth, and accelerating from low 30s. US growth = 108% pa.
• Watch for disruption from GOOGL, and other competitors.
A2 Milk – A2M (ASX) – (4.3%)
• A2 the only A2 only protein milk producer.
• Capital light model – A2M outsources production.
• High margin for “premium” milk product.
• High growth (+50%) in china, US, and UK.
• Great optionality, with infant formula yet to be released in US and UK markets. Huge growth runway.
• Watch for branding – vulnerable to customer whims, and reputational damage. China regulatory and economic risks could greatly impact A2M.
Pushpay – PPH (ASX) – (4.2%)
• Leading SAAS provider in the faith donations administration sector.
• Top dog - First mover.
• 35% revenue growth. Reached cashflow breakeven.
• Increasing gross margins.
• Watch for slowing growth as management focus on generating cash, stabilizing costs, watch for poor acquisition execution.
Bapcor – BAP (ASX) – (3.4%)
• Top dog in ANZ wholesale vehicle parts. Dealer network provides huge competitive moat.
• Well managed and highly profitable.
• Watch slowing growth and market saturation.
• REDUCING POSTION OVER TIME
Envirosuite – EVS (ASX) – (3.2%)
• Leading SAAS environmental management provider. Customers in water treatment, steelworks, and smart cities.
• HUGE TAM.
• First mover.
• 100% revenue growth.
• Very early phase – burning cash. Watch for need to raise further capital in 2020. Watch for sales execution and onboarding risks.
HUB24 – HUB (ASX) – (2.7%)
• 2nd SAAS investment platform in Australia.
• FUA growth o 45%.
• 35% revenue growth, NPAT growth of 39%.
• Watch for margin compression – it is already happening, and operational leverage is affected.
• REDUCING POSTION OVER TIME
Nanosonics – NAN (ASX) – (2.4%)
• World leader in probe disinfectant technology.
• 36% revenue growth, operating profit up 195% showing strong operational leverage as scale increases.
• Installed base growing about 20 % pa.
• High margin consumables sales growth of 59% (razor blade model in action). Over 50% of revenue.
• New product releases over the next three years to increase TAM.
Audinate – AD8 (ASX) – (1.7%)
• World’s leading AV networking protocol, Dante (converts audio / video to digital signal).
• Sells to OEMs – Dante AV use cases – Sports Bars, conference rooms, classrooms, Courtrooms, retail AV, transport hubs.
• Adoption accelerating – Dante now the leading protocol.
• 51% revenue growth.
• Market penetration – 7=8%.
• Video product to be being released this year to double TAM.
• Cashflow positive.
• Watch for decline in adoption, slowing revenue growth.
• INCREASE POSITON OVER TIME TO 5-6%
Wisetech Global – WTC (ASX) – (1.6%)
• World’s leading SAAS supply chain / logistics platform – CargoWise.
• 68% revenue growth, NPAT up 48% (yes, hyper growth and profitable).
• 38 of the top 50 3rd party logistics providers use Wisetech products.
• 7 of the top 25 freight forwarders use CargoWise. Note: all the top 25 use a Wisetech product. Great expansion opportunity for transitioning all customers to the CargoWise platform.
• Customer attrition <1% pa.
• Existing customer revenue expansion: 127% pa.
• Acquires local logistics businesses to establish geographic foothold, increasing competitive moat.
• Watch for emerging competition, trade disruption.
• INCREASE POSITION OVER TIME TO 7-8%.
Redbubble – RBL (ASX) – (1.4%)
• Global platform for artists and customers. Has a strong network affect.
• 40% revenue growth pa.
• Margins lower than typical SAAS: approx. 37%
• Watch for increased competition, vulnerable to Google search algo changes. Onboarding of recent acquisition.
• DECREASE POSITION OVER TIME TO 0%.
Vista Group – VGL (ASX) – (0.9%)
• Leading Global platform for Cinema software.
• 23% pa revenue growth.
• Global market share: 40%.
• SAAS is 32% of revenue, up from 25%.
• Reliant on growth in US, Asia, South America, and Europe. Canada, Central America, and Aus market saturated. Growth not high enough.
• DECREASE POSITION OVER TIME TO 0%.
Positions sold since January 1, 2019:
I sought to reduce my “de-worsificiation”, and offloaded a number of holdings where the thesis had broken, all were experiencing extreme valuations (BVS).
• Volpara health technologies (VHT) – missed revenue targets, and at extreme valuations (22 time precited earnings – which it missed). Great potential – will continue to watch.
• Mynetfone (MNF) – growth story evaporated due to cut throat competition. Growth engines faultered.
• Hansen technologies (HSN) – organic growth disappeared. Roll up dressed up as a SAAS business.
• Paragon Care (PGC) – Missed target, medical supply company trying to transition to a SAAS. Should stick to its knitting.
• Ellex Medical Lasers – growth thesis broken – New laser products growing well, but legacy product growth fell off a cliff.
• Medadvisor – SAAS company for medication management. Technology iffy, and growth rates declining.
• Bravura Solutions – Forecast growth of high teens, which market applauded, driving PER to 38 on forecast numbers. Sold out – better places for my money.
• Adacel technologies (ADA) – thesis broken on service revenue when competitor pinched client on contract to service its own simulators.
• Citadel group – Sold on nose bleed valuations. Consulting business with a little SAAS. Difficult to scale.
• Trimmed Envirosuite, Nearmap, Altium, Appen a little after strong rallies.
Positions acquired since January 1, 2019, positions I added to include:
• WTC
• EVS
• RBL
Non-US Portfolio percentage = 52.6%
Non-US Portfolio Return since January 1, 2019 = 35%
Do you have suggestions, or feedback? looking forward to your thoughts.
Regards,
Sean