Shockwave Medical (SWAV)

This is my second writeup on this company, although I can’t find the first. Maybe it was in an alternate universe or another board.

Anyway:

 Year    2018 2019   2020   2021   2022

Revenue   1.8   12.3   42.9   67.8   201

GM                             63%   75%

Sequential quarterly revenue 31.9 15.2

Investor presentation: https://ir.shockwavemedical.com/static-files/84cb0382-3ad6-4…

This is treatment of calcified cardiovascular disease. Equipment and consumables.

SeekingAlpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4411948-shockwave-medical-t…

For current quarter, revenue was +$13.5 million compared with year earlier with increase of sales and marketing of +13.5 million. A lot of the expense was upfront training of sales force for new procedure. I will want to see some leverage in revenue increase versus sales and marketing increase.

SWAV has been a solid performer stock-wise. Up 404% from March 2020 and up 125% from second purchase in October 2020. If the analysts’ forecast of $67.8 to $201 million comes true the stock could still have legs.

KC

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Move those GM back a year. 64% in 2020, 75% for 2021.

I completely agree with you on this company and appreciate the post. I don’t usually invest in medical device companies as there are many pitfall however SWAV has been an exception. I have been in SWAV since it was in the 40’s. A motley fool article (free) brought my attention to this company back in March. At that time I researched it further by come of my colleagues that work in cardiology to see if their products were being adopted and indeed they were. I remain invested and I follow their earnings reports, FDA approvals, supportive medical studies and international expansion. They guide conservatively to date. They really got hit with a Covid quarter and since then their results have been impressive. SWAV does have a breakthrough technology which is a device that helps open up calcified coronary and peripheral arteries through lithotripsy. Lithotripsy has been used to break up kidney stones for many years. Shockwave used this technology and adopted it for calcified blood vessels. Here is a link to the doctor who founded shockwave and developed the technology:

https://biodesign.stanford.edu/our-impact/technologies/shock…

This is a summary of their q1 2021 earnings report which is impressive:

Recent Highlights

Recognized revenue of $31.9 million for the first quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 110% from the same period in 2020

Received Pre-Market Approval for use of IVL in severely calcified coronary artery disease from the U.S.

Food and Drug Administration, and subsequently launched our Shockwave C2 device in the U.S.

Announced formation of a joint venture with Genesis MedTech Group, an established entity whose management team has a solid track record of commercializing medical devices in mainland China

Submitted Shonin application to PMDA for commercial approval of IVL for coronary use in Japan
CMS proposed new technology add on codes, or NTAP, for inpatient coronary procedures where IVL is used

CEO: “This quarter has been a highly productive one for Shockwave and I could not be more impressed by the achievements of our team and the support of our customers,” said Doug Godshall, President and Chief Executive Officer of Shockwave Medical. “With the recent FDA approval of our Shockwave C2 device, followed by the proposed NTAP payment by CMS only eight weeks after approval, we are well positioned to continue to expand our reach in helping to treat patients with severely calcified arterial disease.”

First Quarter 2021 Financial Results:

Revenue for the first quarter ended March 31, 2021 was $31.9 million, a 110% increase from $15.2 million in the same period of 2020. The growth was primarily driven by the launch of the coronary product, Shockwave C2, in the U.S. in February and increased adoption of Shockwave products.

Gross profit for the first quarter of 2021 was $24.0 million compared to $9.5 million for the first quarter of 2020. Gross margin for the first quarter of 2021 was 75%, as compared to 63% in the first quarter of 2020. Contributors to gross margin expansion included the launch of Shockwave C2 in the US, which has a higher selling price, and continued improvements in manufacturing productivity and process efficiencies.

Total operating expenses for the first quarter of 2021 were $41.5 million, a 45% increase from $28.5 million in the first quarter of 2020. The increase was primarily driven by salesforce expansion in the U.S. and higher headcount to support the growth of the business.

Net loss for the first quarter of 2021 was $23.6 million, compared to a net loss of $18.8 million in the same period of 2020. Net loss per share for the period was $0.68.
Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totaled $177.4 million as of March 31, 2021.
2021 Financial Guidance

Shockwave Medical projects revenue for the full year 2021 to range from $195 million to $205 million, which would represent 188% to 202% growth over the company’s prior year revenue.

**CMS is centers for medicare and medicaid services
**NTAP is New technology add on Payments (eg insurance reimbursements)
** PCI - Percutaneous coronary intervention ( previously known as angioplasty with stent)

Insurance reimbursement appears to be very favorable which is very important especially for new technology. Hospital administrators are both looking at the patients health as well as the financial bottom line at the hospital (or perhaps that is reversed)

*In the proposed rule, CMS specified that the maximum amount of NTAP for a procedure involving coronary IVL is an additional $3,666 to the hospital’s DRG. This was encouraging news and it was impressive to see this proposal in less than three months after C2 was approved by the FDA.

*While the actual reimbursement amount paid for IVL will vary from hospital to hospital and case to case, the important takeaway for our customers is that the use of IVL will likely result in additional payment for inpatient procedures, which should meaningfully reduce any anxiety about our price. This is a positive development, not just for Shockwave, but for patients, physicians and hospitals as well. The proposed rule is now open for public comment and is expected to be finalized and in effect by October 1, 2021. Obviously, to support our accelerating growth, we have had to ramp up our investment in people, facilities and processes.

Shockwave has their product in 56 countries. The adoption of their product speaks volumes as doctors are cautious to adopt new procedures or technologies unless the study data is robust and the new technology truly does make a significant difference in patient care.

The company has a good management team however they are not founder led. The CEO, Doug Godshall, previously took a different medical device to profitability and then they sold out to Medtronic. Shockwave may be on a similar trajectory (profitability then sale of the company) however I will continue to stay invested in the company unless something changes.

They are further expanding into the international market, have new FDA approvals, and good insurance reimbursement. Revenues growing significantly per year/quarter. Covid hit them one quarter then they bounced back.

It looks like currently they don’t have any significant competition (however I have not researched this thoroughly enough) and they have patents. That will probably change however they seem to be the first mover at this time.

The generous insurance reimbursements will make hospital administrators more willing to support adoption of SWAV products.

In terms of their numbers the revenue growth, as you posted, is impressive and based on the earnings call the CEO sounded very upbeat.

Clearly I am long on SWAV. If anyone has a bear case please respond.

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The adoption of their product speaks volumes as doctors are cautious to adopt new procedures or technologies unless the study data is robust and the new technology truly does make a significant difference in patient care.

This is not really true of proceduralists. Many will try new products all the time. I haven’t read up recently, but was not convinced that the IVL system made any real difference over a regular balloon, at least in the lower extremities. Usually calcium will just crack under pressure. They touted “lower pressure” but never told me why the usual higher pressure was undesirable. But I don’t treat coronary arteries.

It looks like currently they don’t have any significant competition (however I have not researched this thoroughly enough) and they have patents. That will probably change however they seem to be the first mover at this time.

The competition here is all the existing devices to treat narrowed arteries. Regular angioplasty balloons, cutting/scoring balloons, and then can you justify the cost of this when you also want to use a drug coated balloon or stent.

I just have trouble seeing the problem they are trying to solve.

The pass-through payment thing is a good way for device companies to convince doctors to use their devices. Basically it avoids the need to consider the cost of the device.

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I thought I would update on SWAV based on comments from vascular surgeons to whom I am close after the company did some recent presentation at a few vascular conferences (I do critical care but have little on-hand vascular experience). SWAV continues to expand significantly. A few numbers from their most recent (August 9 2021) press release:

Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results
Revenue for the second quarter of 2021 was $55.9 million, a 444% increase from $10.3 million in the second quarter of 2020. The growth was primarily driven by the launch of the coronary product, Shockwave C2, in the United States in February, increased adoption of Shockwave products, and the continued recovery from the trough of the COVID-19 pandemic impact in 2020.
Gross profit for the second quarter of 2021 was $46 million compared to $6.7 million for the second quarter of 2020. Gross margin for the second quarter of 2021 was 82%, as compared to 65% in the second quarter of 2020. Contributors to gross margin expansion included the launch of Shockwave C2 in the United States and continued improvements in manufacturing productivity and process efficiencies.
Total operating expenses for the second quarter of 2021 were $46.2 million, an 87% increase from $24.7 million in the second quarter of 2020. The increase was primarily driven by salesforce expansion in the United States and higher headcount to support the growth of the business.
Net loss for the second quarter of 2021 was $0.4 million, compared to a net loss of $18.1 million in the second quarter of 2020. Net loss per share for the period was $0.01.
Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totaled $174.7 million as of June 30, 2021.
2021 Financial Guidance
Shockwave Medical projects revenue for the full year 2021 to range from $218 million to $223 million, which represents 222% to 229% growth over the company’s prior year revenue. This compares to previous revenue guidance of $195 million to $205.

Why is this happening? SWAV specializes in arterial pathology, using high frequency sound waves to “shake loose” areas of calcification that promote arterial stiffness. When there is too much stiffness, an artery has to be bypassed using external (or “open”) procedures, at greater cost and risk to patient and institution (hospital). If arterial flexibility is improved by using SWAV products, endovascular (closed, catheter based) procedures can be used instead after the SWAV application at greater safety and lower cost. So far, CMS (Medicare) has not reimbursed for their device when used for some applications and anatomical locations (it is expensive) but hospitals have been using it anyway in the hope that length of stay and complications are reduced. CMS is now about to allow reimbursement for some of these anatomical locations, however, which will increase availability in US hospitals. Also, the device is expected to get additional FDA approval for new anatomical locations (a hospital, with rare exceptions, cannot allow a device to be used in a way that is contrary to FDA approval) such as major peripheral arteries as well as cardiac applications (the mother lode).

The end-of-August investor presentations by the company indicates expected increases in TAM between 2019 and 2022, reported not as revenue, but as numbers of procedure (revenue will vary dramatically from country to country so that is hard to estimate). Coronary procedures are expected to increase from 3.5 million to 6 million in those 3 years, while peripheral (mostly lower extremity) applications will increase by 25% to 80%, due to a combination of population growth and expansion into China and “rest of Europe.” They anticipate capture of market share from current technologies due to superior results compared to current balloon and mechanical ablation technology.

As a result, my understanding is that there is a significant “buzz” in the cardiology and vascular physician communities.

Unlike venous applications (Inari, say, or its competitors), arterial and especially cardiac applications tend to surge dramatically to the single device that shows best outcome, even if the improvement is rather modest; this is often driven by both convenience to the surgeon and medico-legal repercussions if a second-tier device is used with a subsequent poor outcome.

I cannot tell if stock price has fully priced the anticipated revenue increases from the CMS policy changes, as many hospitals are already stocking the device even though they are not getting reimbursed for some of its usage by CMS even if it is FDA approved for those uses, at least for the present. And finally, the “buzz” and excitement I mentioned above is based on 2nd hand comments and anticipations that may prove to be faulty.

I quoted much from the below-linked document on their website. It is about as upbeat as anything I have ever read from a medical manufacturer, and I rarely invest in medical devices or companies.

https://ir.shockwavemedical.com/static-files/84cb0382-3ad6-4…

Regards,
Brian

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Thanks Brian, adding yesterday’s results to the thread, my key take-aways:

  • Cont’d triple digit revenue growth to $65M (233% YOY), driven by Coronary product (C2) rev growth to $47M (>600% YOY, 130% QOQ)
  • GM continues steady increase (from 35% 4Q18 to 83% 3Q21), demonstrating cont’d efficiencies as they scale
  • 2021 revenue guidance increased to $227-228M, which implies cont’d triple digit growth (235% YOY)

Third Quarter 2021 Financial Results

Revenue for the third quarter ended September 30, 2021 was $65.2 million, a 233% increase from $19.6 million in the same period of 2020. The growth was primarily driven by the launch of the coronary product, Shockwave C2, in the U.S. in February, continued recovery from the pandemic impact and increased adoption of Shockwave products.

Gross profit for the third quarter of 2021 was $54.2 million compared to $14.3 million for the third quarter of 2020. Gross margin for the third quarter of 2021 was 83%, as compared to 73% in the third quarter of 2020. Increase in gross margin was driven by product mix along with continued improvement in manufacturing productivity and process efficiencies.

Total operating expenses for the third quarter of 2021 were $51.4 million, a 90% increase from $27.1 million in the third quarter of 2020. The increase was primarily driven by salesforce expansion in the U.S. and higher headcount to support the growth of the business.

Net income for the third quarter of 2021 was $1.9 million, compared to a net loss of $12.9 million in the same period of 2020. Basic net income per share for the period was $0.06. Diluted net income per share for the period was $0.05.

Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totaled $183 million as of September 30, 2021

2021 Financial Guidance

Shockwave Medical projects revenue for the full year 2021 to range from $227 million to $228 million, which represents 235% to 236% growth over the company’s prior year revenue. This compares to previous revenue guidance of $218 million to $223 million.

3Q press release: https://ir.shockwavemedical.com/news-releases/news-release-d…
3Q Conf Call transcript: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4467137-shockwave-medicals-…
Latest presentation (Aug '21): https://ir.shockwavemedical.com/static-files/84cb0382-3ad6-4…

Fool on, Aart

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There is good news on gross margin. But, the year-over-year revenue increases are a bit misleading. Q2 was 444% y-o-y and Q3 was 233% y-o-y. But 2020 was very much impacted by COVID where there was little elective surgery which is basically the peripheral procedures. Quarter over quarter, Q3 over Q2 was “just” 16.6% and Q4 Q-o-Q is forecast at 15%. Those annualize to “only” 85% and 75% revenue growth and I think that these are the numbers that should be used to evaluate the company performance. Growth will be governed by a measured increase in medical facilities being trained in the procedure plus new procedure approvals in additional geographies and reimbursement approvals.

Given the large number of medical facilities and geographies that are still available for growth, I think that there must be several years of growth ahead. I believe that the switch from sales representatives to company sales offices caused some disruption (reduction) in sales in Europe.

I increased my SWAV position from 4.2% to 8.5% prior to earnings and I intend to reduce back to 4.2% when market opens. SWAV bid/ask is just too wide in pre-market extended hours trading.

KC

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