SHOP

Today SHOP had news they were creating fulfillment centers for their customers. Today is SHOP’s Investor’s Day where they unveiled an updated Shopify Plus platform, more global capabilities including broader currency, language and translation features. Up a nice $23 as I type!

Rob

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Optionality will let this stock run even further into the future. Congrats to those still holding SHOP.

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If I understand the press release, SHOP isn’t creating actual fulfillment systems. They are creating a way for Shopify customers to tap into a network of existing fulfillment systems. Very useful, for sure, but it is only a brokering/connecting service.

Tiptree, Fool One Guide, long SHOP

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SHOP isn’t creating actual fulfillment systems. They are creating a way for Shopify customers to tap into a network of existing fulfillment systems.

Even better, much less capital intensive!

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From the looks of it, they are working feverishly to grow their TAM. For those that have sold, I’m wondering if this changes the thesis (read - what would Kylie Jenner do? Which, IMHO is one of the reasons the stock is soaring…) The link to the Investor Day Press release and summary.

https://investors.shopify.com/Investor-News-Details/2019/Sho…

Introducing Shopify Fulfillment Network
Shopify Fulfillment Network , available now for early access, will provide U.S. merchants with a network of distributed fulfillment centers, and uses machine learning to ensure timely deliveries and lower shipping costs, putting their brand and customer experience front and center.

Announcing Shopify Plus’ all-new platform for enterprise merchants
The all-new Shopify Plus provides a single view of a merchant’s entire business, tools that facilitate a consistent experience across stores, and an easier-than-ever way to create new stores, empowering enterprise merchants to move fast, build with the customer in mind, and unlock growth potential.

Debuting next-generation point of sale software to supercharge in-store experiences
The new Shopify POS will be faster, more intuitive, and more scalable point of sale software, providing retailers with a simple interface, new customer service shortcuts, and access to all of Shopify’s POS app extensions.

Going Global: New ways for merchants to reach international shoppers
Introducing 11 new language capabilities, now available in the Shopify Admin globally, including Traditional Chinese, Simplified Chinese, Danish, Dutch, Finnish, Hindi, Malay, Norwegian, Swedish, Korean and Thai.
Shopify’s Translations API will store translated buyer-facing content including products, collections, and blog posts, enabling merchants to provide the same consistent shopping experience in multiple languages.
With Shopify Payments, all merchants can now sell in multiple currencies and get paid in their local currency.

Bringing an all-new online store design experience
The new online store design experience makes it even easier for merchants to customize the look and feel of their store to meet the evolving expectations of shoppers, without editing the code.
Introducing the ability to display products in video and 3D models right within Shopify, unlocking new possibilities for merchants to deliver the in-store experience online by bringing products to life.
Partners can now integrate subscription payments solutions directly into Shopify’s checkout.

Go fast, be stable: Providing developers with the best tools to build powerful apps
Shopify’s most popular libraries will be available in GraphQL, allowing developers to leverage its speed and efficiency to build faster and more stable apps for merchants.
With the Shopify App CLI (command-line interface), developers can now wrap all their app building steps into one command, scaffolding an app within seconds.
Shopify App Bridge is a new, consolidated tool that enables developers to embed their apps directly into Shopify, including desktop, Shopify Mobile, and Shopify POS, creating a seamless user experience for merchants.

Introducing new back office shipping features to help merchants sell more, better manage their order process, and improve customer experiences
New shipping features make it possible for merchants to set specific shipping rules and pricing for different products, and create automatic and more accurate visibility throughout the fulfillment process, including any activity happening in third-party apps and services.

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Looks like as Amazon goes more and more high volume in its focus, Shopify is going to step in and serve ALL the needs of the SMEs.

At the event they shared some investor presentations - available on the website…
https://investors.shopify.com/events/Events-Presentations/ev…

It goes into the financials of the mechanics of customer cohorts and breaks down the fees. What is interesting was to what degree financial fees now has reached the same level of contribution as the base subscription fees.

We know from experience with Mercadolibre (as well as AMAZON) the successful ecommerce players that maintain massive growth rates and drive margin are ones that incorporate fulfilment. I for one am very pleased to see Shopify doing this. It adds a cross sell opportunity to the TAM and it increases their stickiness to its customers.

Not quite a spiffy pop yesterday but pretty close to it. Although the top slicing I did at 260 is now looking not so smart and I’m girding myself for the next clarion call from Saul on why he sold now that valuations take Shopify up another notch.

I would be very interested to understand if there is any connection between their move on fulfilment and Trump’s rescinding of the international postal treaty that allowed China and foreign operators to obtain preferential shipping rates and what the potential negative impact this could have had for Shopify.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-ditche…

A

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Oh and by the way in case anyone is wondering what the value opportunity of eCommerce logistics and fulfilment might be…

Here’s what the smartest guys in the room think about it at Blackstone!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2019/06/03/blacksto…

A

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Although the top slicing I did at 260 is now looking not so smart and I’m girding myself for the
next clarion call from Saul on why he sold now that valuations take Shopify up another notch.

I trimmed ~1/4 at $285. I feel less bad about that then I would have at $260, but I did it for the right reasons. It had simply grown too large amongst the rest, and I have a history of NOT locking in the gains and then having to sell on the way down, so hedged a little.

As much as I (deeply) respect Saul, and think he’s not wrong on the points he’s made about revenue growth decreasing, I do think this one – as a stock – will continue to run, and that’s why I stayed in (and even added a little). I wouldn’t bet the farm on story stocks, but it’s juicy if you can catch one or two. 150% annualized returns are nothing to snub your nose at, with all due respect to Saul’s well-proven results. BUT, it does require a lot more vigilance and nimbleness – if it turns even sideways, I’m probably going to lop off some more.

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