Simple 'Minor Bottom' again

Investing Strategies Mechanical Investing
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The Simple Bottom Indicator signaled a ‘minor bottom’ again today (22nd September) - the first since the 16th June. It was a reasonably strong indication at 21.35% of NYSE stocks traded reaching 52w new lows (726 from 3401 as measured by the WSJ Market Data).

Be safe out there!
Platykurtic

Boilerplate recap of the ‘simple bottom detector’ rules …

[%NYSE new highs] - [%NYSE new lows] < -16.67% = Minor Bottom
[%NYSE new highs] - [%NYSE new lows] < -33.33% = Major Bottom

… where -16.67% is basically 1/6 more of the NYSE traded stocks achieved new lows than highs for a Minor Bottom & -33.33% is of course a 1/3 more (of total NYSE traded stocks) new lows than highs (as obtained from the WSJ Market Data resource). In practice this means a Major Bottom is signaled when a little more than 1/3 of the NYSE are achieving new lows.

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Interesting.

Is their a similar formula for tops?

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Is their a similar formula for tops?

I’m not aware of one, exactly. But something like Nasdaq recently set a new high (0 - 4ish days) and Nasdaq NH-NL < 0 (with some smoothing) can indicate a market top. Maybe works w/ other indices as well? It worked for the March 2020 (COVID) and January 2022 (current) sell-offs.

John

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FWIW my short term bounce indicator is getting close to a signal. Maybe after today.

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after today 1085 stocks hit new 52 week lows.

1085 / 3401 = 31.9%

pretty darn close to a major bottom

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CoopersHawk, by any chance, do you have the percentages for previous bottoms (such as March 23, 2020 when S&P 500 touched a low of 2237 or March 9, 2009 when S&P 500 touched a low of 666, etc.)?

Thanks in advance.

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Here’s 2020 - there are no column labels but it should be self evident what the data represents (for some reason it interprets the label line from the s/sheet different to the rest of the table):

2020 table
20200226 1013 1948 79 28 352 3040 0.92105% 11.57895% 3116.39 5478110000 -10.66%
20200227 313 2700 32 22 696 3045 0.72250% 22.85714% 2978.76 7058840000 -22.13% MinorBot
20200228 716 2308 43 8 938 3067 0.26084% 30.58363% 2954.22 8563850000 -30.32% MinorBot
20200302 2477 542 32 16 175 3051 0.52442% 5.73582% 3090.23 6376400000 -5.21%
20200303 1031 1946 57 27 171 3034 0.88991% 5.63612% 3003.37 6355940000 -4.75%
20200304 2557 423 41 41 134 3021 1.35717% 4.43562% 3130.12 5035480000 -3.08%
20200305 327 2667 35 38 389 3029 1.25454% 12.84252% 3023.94 5575550000 -11.59%
20200306 543 2461 35 28 714 3039 0.92136% 23.49457% 2972.37 6552140000 -22.57% MinorBot
20200309 70 2973 11 15 1620 3054 0.49116% 53.04519% 2746.56 8423050000 -52.55% MajorBot
20200310 2304 696 47 13 688 3047 0.42665% 22.57959% 2882.23 7635960000 -22.15% MinorBot
20200311 169 2858 22 6 1129 3049 0.19679% 37.02853% 2741.38 7374110000 -36.83% MajorBot
20200312 67 2998 3 2 2377 3068 0.06519% 77.47718% 2480.64 8829380000 -77.41% MajorBot
20200313 2646 376 26 3 644 3048 0.09843% 21.12861% 2711.02 8258670000 -21.03% MinorBot
20200316 119 2934 7 0 2002 3060 0.00000% 65.42484% 2386.13 7781540000 -65.42% MajorBot
20200317 1817 1202 31 8 1324 3050 0.26230% 43.40984% 2529.19 8358500000 -43.15% MajorBot
20200318 186 2853 7 14 2233 3046 0.45962% 73.30926% 2398.10 8755780000 -72.85% MajorBot
20200319 2309 724 23 5 1051 3056 0.16361% 34.39136% 2409.39 7946710000 -34.23% MajorBot
20200320 1316 1703 36 1 299 3055 0.03273% 9.78723% 2304.92 9044690000 -9.75%
20200323 676 2360 28 2 805 3064 0.06527% 26.27285% 2237.40 7402180000 -26.21% MinorBot
20200324 2791 244 15 1 87 3050 0.03279% 2.85246% 2447.33 7547350000 -2.82%
20200325 2422 587 26 3 54 3035 0.09885% 1.77924% 2475.56 8285670000 -1.68%
20200326 2649 369 27 4 21 3045 0.13136% 0.68966% 2630.07 7753160000 -0.56%

And here’s 2009ish:

2009ish table
20090210 463 2660 60 4 58 3183 0.12567% 1.82218% 827.16 6770170000 -1.70%
20090211 1813 1257 101 3 60 3171 0.09461% 1.89215% 833.74 5926460000 -1.80%
20090212 1422 1625 116 4 118 3163 0.12646% 3.73064% 835.19 6476460000 -3.60%
20090213 1182 1877 104 3 43 3163 0.09485% 1.35947% 826.84 5296650000 -1.26%
20090217 357 3453 64 17 331 3874 0.43882% 8.54414% 789.17 5907820000 -8.11%
20090218 897 2216 77 1 297 3190 0.03135% 9.31034% 788.42 5740710000 -9.28%
20090219 1132 2630 121 5 338 3883 0.12877% 8.70461% 778.94 5746940000 -8.58%
20090220 770 2376 56 3 555 3202 0.09369% 17.33292% 770.05 8210590000 -17.24% MinorBot
20090223 589 3265 85 8 558 3939 0.20310% 14.16603% 743.33 6509300000 -13.96%
20090224 2703 450 51 1 322 3204 0.03121% 10.04994% 773.14 7234490000 -10.02%
20090225 1208 1908 75 6 196 3191 0.18803% 6.14228% 764.90 7483640000 -5.95%
20090226 1427 1685 78 0 171 3190 0.00000% 5.36050% 752.83 7599970000 -5.36%
20090227 1024 2065 95 1 333 3184 0.03141% 10.45854% 735.09 8926480000 -10.43%
20090302 203 2953 44 0 627 3200 0.00000% 19.59375% 700.82 7868290000 -19.59% MinorBot
20090303 1015 2122 71 3 705 3208 0.09352% 21.97631% 696.33 7583230000 -21.88% MinorBot
20090304 2486 644 68 1 294 3198 0.03127% 9.19325% 712.87 7673620000 -9.16%
20090305 237 2883 46 5 747 3166 0.15793% 23.59444% 682.55 7507250000 -23.44% MinorBot
20090306 1133 1953 108 1 827 3194 0.03131% 25.89230% 683.38 7331830000 -25.86% MinorBot
20090309 892 2231 67 2 600 3190 0.06270% 18.80878% 676.53 7277320000 -18.75% MinorBot
20090310 2933 230 36 3 93 3199 0.09378% 2.90716% 719.60 8618330000 -2.81%
20090311 1835 1276 81 3 69 3192 0.09398% 2.16165% 721.36 7287810000 -2.07%
20090312 2864 284 39 4 61 3187 0.12551% 1.91403% 750.74 7326630000 -1.79%
20090313 1976 1118 90 4 14 3184 0.12563% 0.43970% 756.55 6787090000 -0.31%
20090316 1767 1338 73 4 16 3178 0.12587% 0.50346% 753.89 7883540000 -0.38%
20090317 2877 889 98 9 65 3864 0.23292% 1.68219% 778.12 6156800000 -1.45%
20090318 2510 601 70 6 19 3181 0.18862% 0.59730% 794.35 9098450000 -0.41%

2009 wasn’t the strongest signal strength though, most of the really strong signals occurred in 2008 during this run:

2008 run
20080910 1725 1454 106 26 322 3285 0.79148% 9.80213% 1232.04 6543440000 -9.01%
20080911 1433 1781 71 28 499 3285 0.85236% 15.19026% 1249.05 6869250000 -14.34%
20080912 1788 1422 72 27 192 3282 0.82267% 5.85009% 1251.70 6273260000 -5.03%
20080915 174 3096 25 23 792 3295 0.69803% 24.03642% 1192.70 8279510000 -23.34% MinorBot
20080916 1474 1776 54 27 1292 3304 0.81719% 39.10412% 1213.60 9459830000 -38.29% MajorBot
20080917 222 3060 30 17 1238 3312 0.51329% 37.37923% 1156.39 9431870000 -36.87% MajorBot
20080918 2436 826 39 70 1108 3301 2.12057% 33.56559% 1206.51 10082690000 -31.45% MinorBot
20080919 2856 409 27 229 119 3292 6.95626% 3.61482% 1255.08 9387170000 3.34%
20080922 590 2647 49 17 56 3286 0.51735% 1.70420% 1207.09 5368130000 -1.19%
20080923 921 2309 52 8 124 3282 0.24375% 3.77818% 1188.22 5185730000 -3.53%
20080924 1301 1888 73 5 130 3262 0.15328% 3.98529% 1185.87 4820360000 -3.83%
20080925 2289 924 66 6 113 3279 0.18298% 3.44617% 1209.18 5877640000 -3.26%
20080926 1065 2148 69 7 264 3282 0.21328% 8.04388% 1213.27 5383610000 -7.83%
20080929 160 3113 16 15 1170 3289 0.45607% 35.57312% 1106.42 7305060000 -35.12% MajorBot
20080930 2790 705 47 8 344 3542 0.22586% 9.71203% 1166.36 4937680000 -9.49%
20081001 1564 1592 53 7 208 3209 0.21814% 6.48177% 1161.06 5782130000 -6.26%
20081002 547 2929 51 11 629 3527 0.31188% 17.83385% 1114.28 6285640000 -17.52% MinorBot
20081003 1201 2250 72 17 642 3523 0.48254% 18.22311% 1099.23 6716120000 -17.74% MinorBot
20081006 265 3016 19 13 1973 3300 0.39394% 59.78788% 1056.89 7956020000 -59.39% MajorBot
20081007 395 2877 30 7 1232 3302 0.21199% 37.31072% 996.23 7069210000 -37.10% MajorBot
20081008 751 2516 35 11 2223 3302 0.33313% 67.32283% 984.94 8716330000 -66.99% MajorBot
20081009 244 2951 37 1 1769 3232 0.03094% 54.73391% 909.92 6819000000 -54.70% MajorBot
20081010 1146 2130 30 10 2901 3306 0.30248% 87.74955% 899.22 11456230000 -87.45% MajorBot
20081013 3029 158 17 1 74 3204 0.03121% 2.30961% 1003.35 7263370000 -2.28%
20081014 1770 1498 27 2 48 3295 0.06070% 1.45675% 998.01 8161990000 -1.40%
20081015 340 2916 28 9 219 3284 0.27406% 6.66870% 907.84 6542330000 -6.39%
20081016 2248 980 53 11 501 3281 0.33526% 15.26973% 946.43 7984500000 -14.93%
20081017 1772 1422 74 5 134 3268 0.15300% 4.10037% 940.55 6581780000 -3.95%
20081020 2909 572 51 8 105 3532 0.22650% 2.97282% 985.40 5175640000 -2.75%
20081021 945 2252 71 6 99 3268 0.18360% 3.02938% 955.05 5121830000 -2.85%
20081022 501 2712 46 7 543 3259 0.21479% 16.66155% 896.78 6147980000 -16.45%
20081023 1199 1989 68 8 849 3256 0.24570% 26.07494% 908.11 7189900000 -25.83% MinorBot
20081024 591 2622 48 12 1125 3261 0.36799% 34.49862% 876.77 6550050000 -34.13% MajorBot
20081027 730 2727 55 8 730 3512 0.22779% 20.78588% 848.92 5558050000 -20.56% MinorBot
20081028 2541 680 54 4 701 3275 0.12214% 21.40458% 940.51 7096950000 -21.28% MinorBot
20081029 2008 1177 75 5 85 3260 0.15337% 2.60736% 930.09 7077800000 -2.45%
20081030 2727 652 66 8 92 3445 0.23222% 2.67054% 954.09 6175830000 -2.44%
20081031 2512 938 59 11 99 3509 0.31348% 2.82132% 968.75 6394350000 -2.51%
20081103 1778 1402 73 6 21 3253 0.18445% 0.64556% 966.30 4492280000 -0.46%
20081104 2778 732 49 7 67 3559 0.19668% 1.88255% 1005.75 5531290000 -1.69%
20081105 621 2554 53 7 28 3228 0.21685% 0.86741% 952.77 5426640000 -0.65%
20081106 549 2651 47 12 133 3247 0.36957% 4.09609% 904.88 6102230000 -3.73%
20081107 2167 981 85 7 113 3233 0.21652% 3.49521% 930.99 4931640000 -3.28%
20081110 1010 2163 78 9 161 3251 0.27684% 4.95232% 919.21 4572000000 -4.68%
20081111 674 2889 71 9 350 3634 0.24766% 9.63126% 898.95 4998340000 -9.38%
20081112 323 3250 50 9 542 3623 0.24841% 14.95998% 852.30 5764180000 -14.71%
20081113 2379 820 69 17 776 3268 0.52020% 23.74541% 911.29 7849120000 -23.23% MinorBot
20081114 773 2780 72 5 214 3625 0.13793% 5.90345% 873.29 5881030000 -5.77%
20081117 899 2769 73 5 365 3741 0.13365% 9.75675% 850.75 4927490000 -9.62%
20081118 1158 2004 84 11 673 3246 0.33888% 20.73321% 859.12 6679470000 -20.39% MinorBot
20081119 199 3005 44 23 1139 3248 0.70813% 35.06773% 806.58 6548600000 -34.36% MajorBot
20081120 225 3008 38 49 1894 3271 1.49801% 57.90278% 752.44 9093740000 -56.40% MajorBot
20081121 2051 1160 55 43 1527 3266 1.31660% 46.75444% 800.03 9495900000 -45.44% MajorBot
20081124 2831 359 33 1 125 3223 0.03103% 3.87837% 851.81 7879440000 -3.85%
20081125 2146 1050 52 7 100 3248 0.21552% 3.07882% 857.39 6952700000 -2.86%
20081126 3100 581 71 18 92 3752 0.47974% 2.45203% 887.68 5793260000 -1.97%
20081128 2284 1149 79 12 39 3512 0.34169% 1.11048% 896.24 2740860000 -0.77%

It went on for quite a while.

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Correct in that it was almost a weak ‘Major Bottom’ by this extremely simple model. (Note I had it signal at -31.19% / -0.3119 not quite as strong as just using the lows by itself.)

Of course the various labels are just names attached to various ratio strengths, so they can be set and named however one wishes. And so I like to think of the strength of the signal as well as its name - the current signals would be very strong ‘Minor Bottom’ signals. Given this is a bear market coming from a very high overall market valuation I’d expect a few strong ‘Major Bottom’ signals before we’re finally done, but could be wrong. In that case I’d define a strong ‘Major Bottom’ as something like < -60% / -0.6 or similar. In 2008 the strongest signals were around -87% / -0.87 or so.

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platykurtic,

Thank you so much for the table. All the column headings are not really apparent, so if you could list them separately, that would be very helpful.

Also, I agree with you that the bottom detector should be viewed on a continuum, rather than in discrete/binary terms (e.g., major bottom or minor bottom). From that perspective, the current signal seems to be a very weak “major bottom” or a strong “minor bottom.”

Many thanks again!

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The Labels are …

NYSE advn decln unchn newhi newlo Total %hi %low ^GSPC ^GSPC Volume %hi-%low MinorBot MajorBot

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Thank you, platykurtic. This is very helpful.

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Thank you for this information, I’m a newbie in investing right now, currently learning before starting out in real-time on a website called https://portal.tradebrains.in/ helping me to analyze stocks based on real-time and other metrics. is there any other stock screener? please do let me know about it

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Zeelotes’ NYSE Bullish Percent Index oversold signal was triggered yesterday.

Low of 18.33 plus 6%.

https://discussion.fool.com/nyse-bullish-percent-index-26277326.aspx?sort=whole

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Platykurtic

I have been looking for historical data for the WSJ new highs nd lows but have not been able to find historical data. Could you advise where I should look (pay?)

Thanks

Craig

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Hi aussi,

That’s a somewhat complicated question as the WSJ advance / decline historical data is not available on the WSJ web-site as far as I can determine. There are a couple of alternative options depending on what’s required …

  1. If one just wants to obtain the data required for the Simple Bottom Detector then just drop me a note and I can supply it in s/sheet form back to 2005ish.
  2. More comprehensive data is available from 2005ish to 10 February 2020 at Advance Decline data. This is where I obtained the original (NYSE advance / decline) data-set and have kept it up-to-date since then.
  3. The recommendation when unicorn stopped updating its data set was to transition to Pinnacle Data at https://pinnacledata2.com/. It costs - I’m not sure about current pricing but it wasn’t too expensive last I looked and you’d need to validate it against the WSJ market data - but (from memory) it also extends back further and frankly the Simple Bottom Detector is so simple that it’s probably plug-and-play as the slight-to-moderate differences between data sets isn’t likely at all material. So Pinnacle was where I was planning to look if I needed a greater or longer data set.

I hope this helps!

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The Pinnacle Data matches the WSJ data. I’ve purchased it a couple times.

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Hi platykurtic

Thanks for the detailed response, very helpful. I looked at the Pinnacle Data and I think I will go down that path. The data goes back to 1965 for NYSE.

Thanks

Craig

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@aussi - If you look at the old boards, I think you can get my name. You can then search and find an email for me (I’m a mathematician in Georgia). Feel free to email me. I’ve written code that may help you process the data. I’d be happy to share.

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Try Barchart.com. A free account brings a lot of downloadable data including daily “NYSE” advances, declines and unchanged statistics. They have their own composite indices such as $ADVT, $DECT, $UNCT as well.

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Flying Circus

The Barchart data does not match the WSJ data in total number of companies, new highs and new lows. My guess is that this is probably not an issue, I am just trying to tag along with platykurtic’s work.

Craig

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