SKX for 2016

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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Way upthread I posted about the divergence of SKX’s earnings growth curve and the stock p/e. I finally (I think) have created a spreadsheet and chart which shows this. The data is for 8 quarters actual and four or five projected. The p/e is back to 20-ish now versus the shoe industry average of 17. Several years ago SKX was coming off some loss quarters. The earnings growth was a ridiculous 700%. The growth became merely high over the following quarters, falling to 200%. The stock price did not keep up and the p/e fell to 20. Then the market began to reward SKX and over the next 4 quarters the p/e expanded back to 30 while the growth rate “plummeted” to under 100% and then 70% at which point we had the correction down to a 20 p/e. Earning estimates predict the growth rate to continue to fall for three quarters, to 33% and then increase to 40%. Much uncertainty, of course but coming from a base p/e around 20 those earnings increases would either drive the price higher or drop the p/e way below the industry average. Much uncertainty about China which was projected to be one of the growth drivers. But, I view SKX as one of the safer stocks and one with potential for increase to $35 to $40 in 2016.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17-N_c3Phu1gzpkoZgNLI…

Just my opinion,

KC

Hmmmm, the link doesn’t look like a link. Well, I tried.

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Interesting observations. Try posting the link again! :slight_smile:

Karen

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Here’s the link again. Still doesn’t link directly but if you highlight it, control-c and control-v into a new page address bar-or whatever, it seems to work to bring up the chart (but not the spreadsheet). The labels aren’t the corrected version…!!!, but again the y-o-y line is the y-o-y TTM % increase divided by 10 to make it overlap the p/e.

It is embarrassing how much effort went into finding the original data from someone else’s post, making my own spreadsheet to figure it out, find the google page, find out how to make the chart and how to publish it (almost publish it). I guess it was an almost-learning experience.

KC

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Even more embarrassing to leave out the link.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17-e4N_c3Phu1gzpkoZgN…

KC

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