Social Security ? for Saul

Saul,

I was ‘linked’ to your postings a couple of weeks ago and have been ‘listening’ and enjoying it since. I haven’t reviewed all 16K posts (yet :slight_smile: but I have read many along with your knowledgebase. I’ve found we have some things in common in that we’re both retired, do not have a pension, and require IRA distributions to live on. I do however have the luxury of having a wife with a teacher’s pension.

Our investing style is also somewhat similar in that I too have always preferred growth stocks. Where they differ though is that I have also traded options, story stocks, and high PE stocks. You’ve convinced me that your style is better and I’ve already made changes toward that end (I follow MF Pro’s allocations too).

That’s a long winded background to the question I’m finally getting to. I’m 64 and have been retired 4 years. I’ve avoided taking Social Security since I’ve liked the idea of getting a guaranteed 8% return for every year I delay. However, based on what you’ve written, I’m guessing you took SS at 62 in order to a) reduce the amount you’d need to withdraw from your IRA and keep as much invested as possible, and b) you would not be satisfied with 8%. Would that be correct? If so, would you do it again? I’m starting to consider this primarily based on reason a).

I apologize if you’ve covered this already and/or if this is a question not applicable for this board.

Thanks in advance,

Tim

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Hi Tim, I’m glad to respond. I started taking Social Security at 62. The way I figured it I had three years worth of distribution to invest with before the guys who took Social Security got the first penny. Even if I had just put it under the mattress, the other guys wouldn’t have caught up with me until I was 72 (I think that’s the figure. It was a long time ago that I made that calculation). It would be years after that before they were significantly ahead. I didn’t know for sure if I would live that long, and I didn’t know whether I’d be too old to care by the time I was significantly ahead, and I preferred to have the benefit while I was young enough to enjoy it (or invest it). It seemed like a pretty open and shut case for me, but everyone has their own preferences.

Hope this helps.

Saul

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Tim and Saul,

For what it is worth, I will be 59 years old in a few months, and am pretty much retired. I plan on putting in for Social Security benefits when I turn 62, pretty much for the same reasons Saul did.
I, too, do not have a pension, and am living pretty much off of my investments.

–az5speedy

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Thanks for sharing guys. I’m 61 years old with only an IRA. I’m a masonry contractor so have no pension. It is good to hear how others are planning their social security so that I may make a wise decision.

Wayne

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I am not sure but I expect from an actuarial standpoint it is the same whenever you start to draw SS.

Of course actuaries deal with the mass, and you are the one. For instance if you have a life threatening disease start withdraw it earlier. If you are healthy from a long lived family and have a healthy lifestyle and have plenty of income at the moment withdraw later.

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Thanks for the quick responses! I did do a break even analysis at age 63 and found that:
a) taking it at 63 vs. 66, the break even age would be 78 (meaning beyond 78, I’d be taking more monthly, 24% more, by waiting to 66), and b) the breakeven between taking it at 63 vs 70 would be age 77 (since at 70 I’d be taking 61% more than I would at 63).

I think if one had a pension, waiting would be the way to go. But, if one does not have a pension, in order to retain as much investment $'s as possible by not having to withdraw as much, taking it early may be the answer.

And at the risk of going way beyond the purpose of this board, sharing for those preparing for retirement, I calculated what my ‘breathing expenses’ would be. Meaning, what it would take to just sit in my paid off house and do nothing but breathe. It came to $30,000 ‘take home’ (net). This is expenses for income taxes (from IRA dist’s), Real Estate taxes (for my one house), Property Taxes (on two cars primarily), house/car insurance, and the bigee, Health Insurance since we are on our own until Medicare at age 65.
Now, if we want to eat (groceries), heat/cool our house (elec/gas), watch TV (e.g. cable), drive into town (gasoline), vacation, etc… that adds a whole lot more. Not complaining, just sharing to help people prepare (and I know there are other boards for this purpose).

Thanks again for your answers and for letting me interrupt the great conversations on this board!

Tim

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I just hope Social Security will be around when I become eligible :slight_smile:

Sincerely,
Charlie

+1 for someone who decided that taking it early kept me ahead for quite a few years and either gave me more to invest or kept me from drawing on what I had invested.

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Charlie,
Do you really think that Social Security will be abandoned? People may try scaring you (Just like the stock market going down) but Social Security will always be here. The politicians do not want to lose their jobs.

Andy

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It looks like it will be around, but benefits will likely be reduced.

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2015/07/social-secu…

Brian

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It looks like it will be around, but benefits will likely be reduced

Brian, this is all supposition. There are many ways to fix the problem and reducing benefits would only be one of them. They could just up the retirement age like they did previously to fix the problem.

Andy

Thanks for the quick responses! I did do a break even analysis at age 63 and found that:
a) taking it at 63 vs. 66, the break even age would be 78 (meaning beyond 78, I’d be taking more monthly, 24% more, by waiting to 66), and b) the breakeven between taking it at 63 vs 70 would be age 77 (since at 70 I’d be taking 61% more than I would at 63).

I did a similar calculation last year when I turned 60, and as I recall, the conclusion rests completely on the assumption that you make about the time value of money between the two different choices for retirement age.

Implicit in the traditional breakeven assumption is that you would “earn” an amount equal to the average if you were to start taking it sooner and put the incremental money into investments of some sort. However, if you believe that you can earn an above average return, possibly much above average, then you’re better off taking SS early rather than later. Hopefully most investors here have the confidence and ability to do so. But keep in mind – caveat emptor – that sometimes bad luck can undo the best of well though out decisions that are based on expected value results.

as always, i am full of carp

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Do you really think that Social Security will be abandoned? People may try scaring you (Just like the stock market going down) but Social Security will always be here. The politicians do not want to lose their jobs.

I’m not sure, it is still a longs way out for me (30+ years), hopefully it will be around in some shape or form. It would be a shame to be forced to pay into a system without any benefit.

Sincerely,
Charlie

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I’m not sure, it is still a longs way out for me (30+ years), hopefully it will be around in some shape or form. It would be a shame to be forced to pay into a system without any benefit.

Exactly Charlie. That is why it will not collapse. If it does the people in the system now will no longer get anything out of it, and the people putting into it will not see anything from it.

Andy

SS is quite along way off for me as well… in that same 30+ year ballpark. I’ve always been of the opinion that by the time I get there it will likely be insolvent, or at least unable to pay enough to make a big difference anyway. If anything it will be extra on top of whatever I can save, but not something I am banking on.

Based on that and also on similar thinking to what some have said above, i’d rather have the cash in my pocket to manage as I see fit then wait and expose myself to more unknowns (health changes, geopoilital events, policy changes, etc)

But long way to go before that bridge needs to be crossed anyway

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Tim and others,

Here’s how I did the calculation when I was 62. I don’t remember the exact figures of course. I’m just making them up, but it will give you an idea.

Say my monthly Social Security, taking it at 62, was $1000 a month. That’s $12,000 a year. By the time the guy making it at 65 got started, I’d have $36,000 in the bank (even with no interest, no investment gains, etc). Say that taking it at 65, you’d get $1400 a month, so you’d catch up $400 a month, or $4,800 a year… but you are $36,000 behind!!! At that rate you’d break even in 7.5 years, or when you are 72.5 year old. I didn’t know if I’d even be alive 10 years later at 72, or in a nursing home, or whatever. And that’s just breaking even, catching up with what you postponed!

If the guy with $36,000 invested it and made just 7% per year (less than the S&P average), he’d pull in $2,500 and the fellow starting at 65 would only gain $4800 - $2500 = $2,300 per year. He’d be over 80 before he broke even. Where’s the profit in that? Live until 90 and you’d be a little ahead?

Saul

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https://www.nasi.org/learn/socialsecurity/overview

for lots of info re SS

If the guy with $36,000 invested it and made just 7% per year (less than the S&P average), he’d pull in $2,500 and the fellow starting at 65 would only gain $4800 - $2500 = $2,300 per year.

The guy who waits gets a raise each year (the eventual SS payment is higher), so the calculation is less. Indeed, people who counsel waiting note that it’s like getting a 2.8% risk free (or as risk free as the US Government is) bond (your payout increases). Most mathematical analyses I have read say the “break even” point is somewhere around 81 years old by waiting. So (if that is true) take it early if you are in poor health, have a questionable family health history, or can’t live without it. Otherwise wait.

But wait! I have argued (and done so myself) that the money will have little practical value to me when I am 88; I will probably be in a nursing home, and if it’s anything like my father’s or father’s-in-law, they make you pay full price until you run out, then they take your pensions and social security as full payment until you die. I guess it would be nice to give the home another $400 a month, but I think I can use that money better now myself.

I am able to live, do things, travel, play in the workshop now in my 60’s. I am unlikely to be able to do that in my 80’s. It’s not just the “time value of money”, it’s also the “enjoyment value of money.”

I took it at 62, even though I didn’t really need it.

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Tim et al,

Recently on the TMF Retirement Investing board, intercst made a 12/5/2015 post about “Social Security Misconceptions That Impact Taxpayers” by a retired IRS research analyst who proffered that it doesn’t make sense to delay your SS benefit.
http://ssmisconceptions.solutions/
This post stirred a thread with a whopping 122 posts
http://discussion.fool.com/dont-wait-take-soc-security-now-32020…

of which IMO the following three were most noteworthy:

ptheland response to comment: Can someone bottom line this for me?

If you need Social Security to keep from eating cat food, take it at age 62.

If you don’t need Social Security at all, take it at age 62.

If you keep working from 62 to 67 and make more than $45k a year, you may as well wait until you stop working. You’ll have to give it back anyway.

If you are terminally ill, take it as soon as you can.

If you don’t fit one of those, you’ll have to do some thinking and analysis.

ItsGoingUp response to comment: And people who know that a dollar today is not the same as a dollar 8 years from today.

It’s simplistic to compare simply the number of dollars today and in the unknown future. But your implication is that inflation is the only relevant factor. In fact, there are a few things that can make dollars in the future much more valuable than dollars today.

Deflation is the obvious counter-possibility to inflation, but I don’t think that’s the important one. The real possibility is that the money is just much more useful to the individual in the future. At 62, if it’s the case that you have a $150K/year income and taking SS would add $30K/year then how useful is it really? But if, by some unfortunate chance, your income and savings disappear (fraud, mismanagement by dementia, identity theft, family disasters, etc.), then getting $40K/year because you put off taking SS until later will be a substantial improvement over $30K.

This is my situation. I’ve retired early with plenty of money to cover my needs (and wants). I won’t need any SS payments when I turn 62. So I’ll just wait until I do need it and take the higher amount then. I look at it as insurance in the case of disaster, and absent disaster it just won’t make much difference to me. If the insurance ever is needed, having it be more money with be a very good thing.

Only people who know how to do simple math.

When it comes to money the math is never simple. To get it right you always have to apply some personally defined utility function. It changes with time and fortune.

Goofyhoofy response to comment: 1 fear in retirement - outliving your money. The person that plans to take their SS at 70 is less likely to outlive their money, all else being equal. Even if my personal and family medical history were to suggest I will only live to 83, I still am going to plan (insure myself) against the posibility of such being wrong by planning to take SS later.

What is it you think you’re going to be doing when you’re 89? Jetting to Rio? Building a cabin on Lake Champlain?

My father just died at age 94. He was in a retirement home which promised to care for him “as long as he lived”, even if his assets ran out. (He had to have some assets on the way in to be depleted first, of course.) Dad had a portfolio of almost $2m, so no worries.

Mrs. Goofy’s father is still alive at age 92, and has recently over into a retirement home which has the same policy. He had less than $300,000 in assets, but they still took him. At $10,000/mo (nursing care) it will be gone in a few more months, but he will stay there until he dies, and the home will take his Social Security check as payment for however long that time left to him is. As he took it early, the check is less, but it ensures a retirement in this lovely home, with daily entertainments, decent food, movies, and companionship.

Meanwhile people are denuding themselves in their 60’s in the hopes of living to age 94, when they need be wheeled around by an aide, drooling at the mouth, so they can have a bigger Social Security check - which will be taken by the home regardless.

Bah. You can still have a full and active life in your 60’s and 70’s (and this is where somebody chimes in and says “But my Aunt Gertrude travelled to France when she was 87!” as though that’s typical.) Take the money while you can do something with it, not when all you get to do is sign it over to someone else.

Since my mom is 91 and in good health and last weekend our family celebrated my mother-in-law’s 104th birthday (she is amazingly in good physical and mental health), chances are my wife and I have long life genes [ http://www.newsweek.com/long-life-imprinted-genes-centenaria… ] and may be around a loooong time, barring any life threatening maladies or events. I started my Social Security benefits at age 66, when I retired with traditional IRAs, a company pension, and a 401K (all employer stock) that I rolled over to an IRA. My wife initially wanted to continue working to age 70, but decided to retire at age 68, when her company merged with another; she retired with an IRA and a company 401K rolled over to an IRA and started her Social Security benefits.

I’ve advised younger colleagues and friends, if they haven’t, to open IRAs (preferably Roth) and contribute the allowable maximum. Likewise, if their employers have 401K plans.

Regards,
Ray
BTW, the Retirement Investing board is excellent with savvy contributors.

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But wait! I have argued (and done so myself) that the money will have little practical value to me when I am 88; I will probably be in a nursing home, and if it’s anything like my father’s or father’s-in-law, they make you pay full price until you run out, then they take your pensions and social security as full payment until you die. I guess it would be nice to give the home another $400 a month, but I think I can use that money better now myself.

I am able to live, do things, travel, play in the workshop now in my 60’s. I am unlikely to be able to do that in my 80’s. It’s not just the “time value of money”, it’s also the “enjoyment value of money.” I took it at 62, even though I didn’t really need it.

Hi Goofy, I figured it exactly the same way! Get it when you are young enough to enjoy it!
Saul

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