Smashed it as always. Turning out to be a SAAS blue chip! Someone remarked that in 3-4 years this can have annual revenue of $5B+ and a valuation like Service now which will put this at a market cap of around 100B - a 3 bagger from here. I think that is possible. This is my largest position. I have added to this recently.
This has always had a very high multiple for its steady 50% growth rate. I got out of it last Fall when the valuation got out of hand but am back in now. I think it has an even better competitive advantage than Datadog. I like the crisp, clear responses from Prince the Founder and CEO. No technobabble. Look at the very first response to the analyst in the transcript where he gives an example of a customer’s bot problems. The guy is a visionary much along the lines of Jeff Green, the CEO of TTD. See his dream And as we are, we are sowing the seeds to build what we intend to become not just what some of you may think of as a SaaS, a steady, efficient, fast-growing SaaS company today, but an iconic trusted technology company that will define the future of the Internet for decades to come. Operating at a break-even margin or cash flow is not a problem. They have tons of cans and are unlikely to run out anytime soon.
I was invested in this back in 2019-20 and back in now. It has got beaten up so bad - It has an FWD P/S of 4.6. This is not an eCommerce business like Amzn warranting such valuation. This is a take-rate business. They have gotten big into fintech recently which is growing faster and is almost reaching the size of the marketplace business. Their logistics, credit adds to the moat. They have asset management and even a Crypto marketplace. I added recently. I cannot see its multiples going down much from these levels and the company has a good chance of putting 30% growth for a while. Other SAAS stocks may grow faster but after considering dilution and multiple compression MELI should give a good CAGR imo. Of course, I may be totally wrong and SEA will eat its lunch. But I doubt.
I have been wary of application sw business after getting burnt by Docusign recently. After the enthusiasm of Saul and many others here, I took a position recently which is quite a bit underwater. Bill.com should grow quite fast in the next year or 2 as reasoned by Zoros and Finally Fooling. Jonwayne brought up good points and I read up on its competitor Ramp. Looks like Ramp is better at spend management than Divvy and seems laser-focused on saving money for its customers. Will Bill.com lose focus and fail to grow Divvy the way Teladoc killed Livongo? Bill has 85% member retention which is low but has been deep network effects with cpa.com and FIs which is hard to replicate. For now, I feel Bill.com is good but if they cannot sell Divvy to their 146k+ customers it should be a concern.
Yes, my port is quite a bit underwater as well. I plan to stick to these fast-growing businesses. As long as the business is performing my port has a better chance of returning back to ATH than selling now and investing in index funds.