It seems quiet, if nervous, so here are some growth companies in which I have full holdings:
ADBE AMAT CDNS CHKP FDS IDEXY IPGP LCII MKTX MMS PAYC SHOP SWKS SYK THO TREX V.
I don’t think any are a buy at the moment. I am assuming the multiple-expansion phase has passed and I am now relying on continued performance.
SHOP and PAYC are serious outliers from my normal absolute demand for robust fundamentals! SWKS has the fundamentals but the glitch and the credibility took a knock.
here are some growth companies in which I have full holdings
Hi streina, if you were going add a little to one of them now, which would it be, and why? In other words, which do you like best, and what do you specially like about it? (Since you are generally very particular about stocks, I figure any that you took full positions in must have something really good going for them).
Thanks in advance,
Saul, the thing is those have all become full holdings already, also I do not see a really tempting price so I have no plans to add. If I had to pick, it would probably be MMS or TREX.
Being less altruistic than you, I can never bring myself to mention things I still want to buy, or buy more of, for fear of creating competition in the marketplace! (Probably unlikely but who knows.)
But at the moment, I am finding nothing that has what I am always looking for, a combination of ROIC, margins and FCF and their histories, with some level of director interest, without significant debt and at a reasonable price. I haven’t bothered to look at the watchlist in months. Most of the prices I entered on it are mostly 20% below where we are now! And more.
Being less altruistic than you, I can never bring myself to mention things I still want to buy, or buy more of, for fear of creating competition in the marketplace!
Hi streina, I’m not as altruistic as all that. If I’m buying something that trades millions of shares a day, I may mention it, but I often say that I’m also in a small position I’m not ready to talk about yet. (I wrote up ZIOP because I thought I wasn’t going to buy any more, but I added a little at the opening today, [following the press release], which was up 30 cents from $5.87 to $6.17. It settled back to $5.97, and I thought “oh well” but I looked a minute ago and it was up 86 cents, up almost 15%).
I should add SWKS to the others. I am not planning to increase my bet further but it does look attractive.
Though I haven’t heard of a few of yours, we overlap on SHOP, SWKS, V, and FDS. And I’m interested in at least PAYC, CHKP, and SYK.
It would be interesting to see which stocks are held by the most people on this forum.
I meant which stocks in general, not just the ones you listed.
Care to share your thoughts on FDS? I would appreciate it. Its a stock on my watchlist but haven’t had a chance to look too much at it yet.
MasterCard (MA), Nestle (NSRGY), PayPal (PYPL), and Verizon (VZ) Ticker Guide
See all my holdings at http://my.fool.com/profile/CMFCochrane/info.aspx
I don’t think any are a buy at the moment.
I don’t know. I have way more regrets for not buying companies I discovered and admired, than for buying at the wrong time. Maybe it’s just me, but a hefty percentage of companies I come across and really like, are already on their way to the moon. I don’t buy because I’m too cheap or whatever, and up they continue, forever and ever.
The glaring exception is Netflix. I bought NFLX so many times, and it always ended up being at a high point, then it drops a bunch, I eventually sell thinking it’s done growing,and < BOOM! > then it takes off like a rocket again, rinse and repeat over and over. It’s gained thousands of percent since I knew of it, and overall I lost on my NFLX investments! I’ll hazard a guess that nobody can beat that record of stupidity on a single stock. Altogether I’ve owned it for years and still lost money, which seems almost impossible. But of course, ha ha, I’m a genius.
On FDS, I have liked it for years because it so often came through the screens and DD. The threat here is the competition, Bloomberg et al. However, it seems to keep going and I suppose the thing to do is watch sales and margins. Recession, constraints on client spending would be adverse but with everything, when recession comes, all bets are off on what could happen with anything.
A few more points on FDS: the model is growth by acquisition of data companies to broaden its capability and keep up to date. There is a question over whether the high level of goodwill is justified. Client retention is over 95%.
I just looked a bit at Maximus (MMS), which was one of your initial two top recommendations. It seems to be a well regarded company that beats expectations regularly. But expectations are low. Revenue was up by just 14.5% last year and only half of that small gain was organic. Earnings were up 14.0%. PE is 20.5. Their fourth quarter revenue growth was only 8%. First quarter 2017 revenue growth was just 9%. They just reduced estimates a tiny amount due to a contract cancellation. I know that you are both careful and smart so I know that there must be other factors that you are looking at to have selected this stock as one of your top picks. I’d really appreciate if you could explain what you like about it especially. I’m feeling a bit frustrated, as if I don’t understand what you are selecting. Thanks.
Saul, can I hasten to repeat MMS is not a top recommendation! It is not a pick! It is one of the full holdings I listed which I bought in tranches at lower prices and I have no wish to buy more.
You and I have very different aspirations for growth. I want to see growth over 9% and much prefer it higher. I am not especially looking for very high growth. (I define growth as (sales growth + sales growth + earnings growth)/3.) But it is the things I mentioned I want to see alongside this growth that are so important to the holding’s likely longevity and without which I do not buy.
My notes on MMS included that RS was only OK, that healthcare admin. might carry political risk, that margins are a bit variable but OK. On the valuation side, P/FCF, FCFY and PS all looked reasonable enough, while I am seeing ROIC of 21 (the very first ratio I always look at so I can immediately save time if it is under 16).
It is very kind of you to call me smart. Gosh I wish I was. I continue to find the world of investing gives regular sharp lessons in humility!
Thanks Steina for taking the time to explain like that. Much appreciated.
I continue to find the world of investing gives regular sharp lessons in humility!
How true! Is there any other field that is as competitive, that attracts as many brilliant minds and as many resources? To make matters even more complicated, it evolves at a rapid pace.
The first joint stock limited liability company, The Dutch East India Company, only came into existence in 1602 and a market for its stock soon followed.
If you are interested in the history of finance I highly recommend Niall Ferguson’s The Ascent of Money: a financial history of the world which I’m re-reading for the third time.
The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World 1st Edition by Niall Ferguson
I highly recommend Niall Ferguson’s The Ascent of Money: a financial history of the world
Well I’d highly recommend Thomas Standage’s A History of the World in Six Glasses It talks about the evolution of economies thru the ages from Beer, Wine, Spirits, coffee, tea, and Coca-Cola.
I’m amazed that you can look at 1602 as a fairly recent event and look at stocks in terms of decades, Denny. That takes patience that I just don’t have.