Sorry for an on topic post...

… about Berkshire Hathaway.

With it quickly 15% fallen within 6 weeks I am considering reversing my direction (shortly ago I sold with a little 10% profit BRK Jan’24 puts which I bought for gambling/speculation + hedging a little my huge Berkshire position), thinking about starting to buy Jan’24 calls (and more of the same should the slide continue).

Too early?

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Nobody is getting aggressive on ANY stock (including BRKB) at ANY price

Board is only alive during good times

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I am considering buying calls on BRK/B. You should buy when everyone is selling.

I sold some puts on BRK/B to give me the option to buy BRK/B if I get the chance if not I pocket the put premium. Aprox. 7% on 8 months not bad for fixing a P/B value of 1.2.

I have experienced 2000, 2009, 2020 stock crashing 50% or more. The current risk factors are no less than those before the crashes, the biggest being Ukraine war that may bring a worldwide recession or much worse. The current prices are just not low enough, except some tech stocks that I know little and would not buy at any price.

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Speaking for myself,it is not yet time. The FED just started raising,the market seems to only want to go down,and volume is not yet a multiple of average volume to the downside.

In 2007 ,a $61 stock went from. 4 to 8 twice in the same month. That may be the volatility to look for. Or perhaps sirius for six cents per share?
When you already have enough,why risk anything until 1 ft hurdles appear?:hushed:

JK

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I agree with you about the volume being too low, plus I don’t think there’s enough panic…yet.

I put in a bid @ $287 to buy some of my traders back that I sold from $311 to $350ish this last run. Looks like this is in the area of both support and resistance.

My next buys for which I’ll try, will be around $211-$218. If we blow through that, I’ll try for a 50% off sale around $181 (less than 0.9x book) where I’ll exhaust my traders and possibly look at a HELOC (I don’t like debt so I’ll have to think a little about this)…doubt we get there, but strange things happen during panic selling! Most of these trades are in my IRA, so taxes are deferred for now… A guy can dream!

JK, good points. So you expect it to become much worse before getting better.
Thank you for sharing your opinion.

Too early?

Yes.

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BRKB not trading at $278/B share again. No way

said2,
Not that it will,but it certainly could. I have no need for more in the market unless the market becomes compellingly cheap.

Jk
80%stock/20%cash

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I just looked back at the highest price I ever paid for a BRK share over the last 24 years - that was in early 2020 ($217). At the time, I really thought I had overreached. I’m usually more disciplined than that. Since 98, I’ve bought and held all of my BRK, accumulating it, bit by bit, on large downdrafts. Never sold a single share. Then, in less than a month, COVID panic got underway, and the rout really got into high gear. I said to myself, “yes, Ray, you really did pay too much for those shares!” But, suddenly, Mr Market gave me one more chance to back up the truck, and so, I began to accumulate as much as I could, until it hurt, between $170 and $180. There was so much fear out there back then. I held my breath and thought maybe I was too early, yet again. I remember someone on here suggesting a substantial haircut from there…maybe another 30%…can’t recall. But today, looking back, it’s only been a little over 2 years since that moment, but $217 still looks to me like ancient history.

I’m all done accumulating BRK. I have enough. Could it decline to that level again? Certainly! But, in 2020, I thought it was overpriced. So, Tailbear is putting in a bid at $278, about 1.2 BV? Looks roughly right to me! I say grab it while you can! You may never see it that low ever again. What looked rather expensive to me two years ago, has now become a helluva bargain price, but I suspect anything below BV is a floor that may never be breached again, or at least won’t stay there longer than a trading day or two — just wishful thinking, IMHO.

80%BRK
20%Cash
Tiny position in DLTR…a near 100% return in less than a year. Think I’ll hold that one for awhile. Inflationary times and all that stuff. Thank you Jim!

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Its amusing that every one is now an expert on stock prices, market timing and recessions

Just a couple of weeks ago, there were posts about BRK deserved a PBV of 2.0.

BRK is now back to PBV of 1.3

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and thank goodness. the buybacks will continue.

onwards

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Everyone is always wrong about short term trends.

If anyone really understood short term movements and how to predict them, they could own the hlobe.

5-10 years out is the bare minimum, IMHO.

I still like how TSLA is growing.

Was lucky to go into the Gigafest at the Austin plant.

The business is “firing on all cylinders”. Pun intended.

In 5 years we will be glad that we held…

Tesla and SpaceX are simply wonderful companies…

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own the Globe*.

:^[

Will it?

Umm, SpaceX is a privately owned company, so no way for little folks like me to participate. This is unfortunate because I feel it will likely be far more profitable over the long run than Tesla. This is why I am not touching cable or telephone companies since learning of SpaceX’s huge numbers of satellites being able to continuously communicate to novel transmitters/receivers designed by SpaceX for homes and presumably eventually with our cars and cell phones. Disruption city.

Uwharrie

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BRKB not trading at $278/B share again. No way

You’re seriously claiming that BRKB can’t drop 10% from here?

I suppose it’s possible it never re-visits that level, but I wouldn’t make that bet.

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I snagged some of my traders back in extended trading this morning @ $287. Gonna try to buy more @ $211-$218. We have an unfilled gap up in this area from 11/8/20. Not all gaps are filled but it’s a target I selected about 1 month ago.

Said, 12.May: Too early? [to buy BRK calls]

JimKredux: Speaking for myself,it is not yet time.

Great call, Jim!

Still too early?