… about Berkshire Hathaway.
With it quickly 15% fallen within 6 weeks I am considering reversing my direction (shortly ago I sold with a little 10% profit BRK Jan’24 puts which I bought for gambling/speculation + hedging a little my huge Berkshire position), thinking about starting to buy Jan’24 calls (and more of the same should the slide continue).
Too early?
Nobody is getting aggressive on ANY stock (including BRKB) at ANY price
Board is only alive during good times
I am considering buying calls on BRK/B. You should buy when everyone is selling.
I sold some puts on BRK/B to give me the option to buy BRK/B if I get the chance if not I pocket the put premium. Aprox. 7% on 8 months not bad for fixing a P/B value of 1.2.
I have experienced 2000, 2009, 2020 stock crashing 50% or more. The current risk factors are no less than those before the crashes, the biggest being Ukraine war that may bring a worldwide recession or much worse. The current prices are just not low enough, except some tech stocks that I know little and would not buy at any price.
Speaking for myself,it is not yet time. The FED just started raising,the market seems to only want to go down,and volume is not yet a multiple of average volume to the downside.
In 2007 ,a $61 stock went from. 4 to 8 twice in the same month. That may be the volatility to look for. Or perhaps sirius for six cents per share?
When you already have enough,why risk anything until 1 ft hurdles appear?
JK
I agree with you about the volume being too low, plus I don’t think there’s enough panic…yet.
I put in a bid @ $287 to buy some of my traders back that I sold from $311 to $350ish this last run. Looks like this is in the area of both support and resistance.
My next buys for which I’ll try, will be around $211-$218. If we blow through that, I’ll try for a 50% off sale around $181 (less than 0.9x book) where I’ll exhaust my traders and possibly look at a HELOC (I don’t like debt so I’ll have to think a little about this)…doubt we get there, but strange things happen during panic selling! Most of these trades are in my IRA, so taxes are deferred for now… A guy can dream!
JK, good points. So you expect it to become much worse before getting better.
Thank you for sharing your opinion.
Too early?
Yes.
BRKB not trading at $278/B share again. No way
said2,
Not that it will,but it certainly could. I have no need for more in the market unless the market becomes compellingly cheap.
Jk
80%stock/20%cash
I just looked back at the highest price I ever paid for a BRK share over the last 24 years - that was in early 2020 ($217). At the time, I really thought I had overreached. I’m usually more disciplined than that. Since 98, I’ve bought and held all of my BRK, accumulating it, bit by bit, on large downdrafts. Never sold a single share. Then, in less than a month, COVID panic got underway, and the rout really got into high gear. I said to myself, “yes, Ray, you really did pay too much for those shares!” But, suddenly, Mr Market gave me one more chance to back up the truck, and so, I began to accumulate as much as I could, until it hurt, between $170 and $180. There was so much fear out there back then. I held my breath and thought maybe I was too early, yet again. I remember someone on here suggesting a substantial haircut from there…maybe another 30%…can’t recall. But today, looking back, it’s only been a little over 2 years since that moment, but $217 still looks to me like ancient history.
I’m all done accumulating BRK. I have enough. Could it decline to that level again? Certainly! But, in 2020, I thought it was overpriced. So, Tailbear is putting in a bid at $278, about 1.2 BV? Looks roughly right to me! I say grab it while you can! You may never see it that low ever again. What looked rather expensive to me two years ago, has now become a helluva bargain price, but I suspect anything below BV is a floor that may never be breached again, or at least won’t stay there longer than a trading day or two — just wishful thinking, IMHO.
80%BRK
20%Cash
Tiny position in DLTR…a near 100% return in less than a year. Think I’ll hold that one for awhile. Inflationary times and all that stuff. Thank you Jim!
Its amusing that every one is now an expert on stock prices, market timing and recessions
Just a couple of weeks ago, there were posts about BRK deserved a PBV of 2.0.
BRK is now back to PBV of 1.3
and thank goodness. the buybacks will continue.
onwards
Everyone is always wrong about short term trends.
If anyone really understood short term movements and how to predict them, they could own the hlobe.
5-10 years out is the bare minimum, IMHO.
I still like how TSLA is growing.
Was lucky to go into the Gigafest at the Austin plant.
The business is “firing on all cylinders”. Pun intended.
In 5 years we will be glad that we held…
Tesla and SpaceX are simply wonderful companies…
own the Globe*.
:^[
Will it?
Umm, SpaceX is a privately owned company, so no way for little folks like me to participate. This is unfortunate because I feel it will likely be far more profitable over the long run than Tesla. This is why I am not touching cable or telephone companies since learning of SpaceX’s huge numbers of satellites being able to continuously communicate to novel transmitters/receivers designed by SpaceX for homes and presumably eventually with our cars and cell phones. Disruption city.
Uwharrie
BRKB not trading at $278/B share again. No way
You’re seriously claiming that BRKB can’t drop 10% from here?
I suppose it’s possible it never re-visits that level, but I wouldn’t make that bet.
I snagged some of my traders back in extended trading this morning @ $287. Gonna try to buy more @ $211-$218. We have an unfilled gap up in this area from 11/8/20. Not all gaps are filled but it’s a target I selected about 1 month ago.
Said, 12.May: Too early? [to buy BRK calls]
JimKredux: Speaking for myself,it is not yet time.
Great call, Jim!
Still too early?