A breakdown of the employee and early-backer release schedule:
Earnings Unlock: Up to 20% becomes available for sale immediately following SpaceX’s Q2 2026 earnings report.
Performance Booster: An additional 10% unlocks if the stock trades 30% or more above the $135 IPO price during 5 out of 10 consecutive trading days after the first earnings release.
Staggered Increments: 7% tranches unlock on days 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 post-listing.
Q3 Unlock: Another 28% unlocks after the Q3 2026 earnings call.
Final 180-Day Unlock: The remainder of eligible shares are freed after 180 days.
There is consistent supply coming into the market from Q2…
I just realized Elon owns 50% of the outstanding shares. The actual float is not much and 3 indexes are adding immediately, so there is artificial demand and that is pushing the price high… so be careful if you are thinking of shorting the shares.
Separately, every VC, or those who have invested in earlier rounds are declaring Elon is a genius who created “invented” the EV market, but a simple reality is BYD a chinese company sells more EV’s than Tesla. Some of the numbers floated are mind boggling.
unless you are a compulsive gambler, like yours sincerely, stay out of this name for awhile. Just be careful out there..
I purchased some SNK (2x Short SPCX) last week when it started losing some steam. Willing to hold it for a while through lockout expiries. I know the “musk factor” is always a reality, the current valuation defies all logic and I’m anticipating this coming somewhat back to reality after their first earnings.
While I posted the unlock dates, be aware the index inclusion dates. That’s as the supply increases there is demand. Generally, I stay out of 2x, 3x products, as they are very short-term oriented, which is very difficult to predict.
For ex, in the last 10 days, 9 days QQQ moved +/- 1%, and at the end of 10th day it has moved in total 0%. Do you know what this will do to 2x, 3x funds???
Yes I am familiar with decay on leveraged ETFs. You make a good point about index inclusion, I see Russel is end of this week and Nasdaq 100 July 6th did not realize they would be this early, so I will probably close my position tomorrow (unless this continues to drop sharply, then may at least wait out the day). Currently at 59% gain.
