SPX Earnings

I did some SP500 analysis using Stock Investor Pro. The historic sales look like this (I removed BRK.B as it overwhelms the other data).


Sales 12m	Sales Y1	Sales Y2	Sales Y3
10,163,774.5 	10,151,656.2 	10,413,163.1 	10,003,904.5 
12,118.3 	(261,506.9)	409,258.6 	
0.12%	        -2.51%	        4.09%	

The historic and estimated earnings look like this:


EPS Est Y1	EPS Est Y0	EPS 12m 	EPS Y1	        EPS Y2	        EPS Y3
2,387.7 	2,100.3 	1,504.6 	1,468.5 	1,742.6 	1,615.1 
287.4 	        595.7 	        36.0 	       (274.1)	        127.4 	
13.69%	        39.60%	        2.45%	       -15.73%	        7.89%	

So the estimates expect 39% EPS growth this year. Does anyone here expect this level of EPS growth? Does anyone care?

Just asking because this board seems like the place to discuss fundamentals.

6 Likes

What company is this? I have looked, but cannot find a company with this ticker symbol.

It’s the S&P 500 index.

https://www.google.com/webhp?ie=UTF-8&rct=j#q=spx ya can’t buy this index, however, you can buy following ETF at the correct signal.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SH&p=D&yr=0&mn=…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SSO&p=D&yr=0&mn…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UPRO&p=D&yr=0&m…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SDS&p=D&yr=0&mn…

ajaskey, something’s wrong. Analysts are NOT expecting 39% increase in EPS on the S&P500 Index. It’s not clear from your data, how you jumped to that conclusion. Now, of course, I hope you don’t take offense just because I am pointing this out.

Can you clarify the following:

S&P500 EPS for 2015
S&P500 EPS est for 2016
S&P500 EPS est for 2017

Here’s what I have approximately for the above

2015 - 113
2016 122
2017 135

This implies <8% growth for 2016 and <11% for 2017.

If you ask me, 8% is very attractive and if analysts are correct, we can’t ask for more. But I don’t see that happening. It is possible that the FX headwinds that affected all companies that export or sell overseas in 2015 have or are expected to go away and maybe that’s the reason for such a bullish forecast.

The only time we can have 39% increase in SPX earnings is when you were in a recession and the year or years prior to the 39% growth saw a 20-30 or 40% decline in EPS. In 2009, SPX earnings dropped 16% and there was a very healthy recovery (of the EPS) in 2010.

2 Likes