SQ Getting Inexpensive

I know that most of you have gotten out of Square before the debacle. I’d like to think I did well by selling some of my shares after earnings, I reinvested the money in companies that fell a lot anyway, just not quite as much. But it may be time to take a look at putting more money into the company’s stock now.

Here are some historical data:

ARevTTM	Mar	Jun	Sep	Dec		WASh	Mar	Jun	Sep	Dec
2014				276		2014	135	141	144	148
2015	313	357	400	452		2015	145	149	152	235
2016	498	546	593	636		2016	331	334	344	356
2017	687	747	816	895		2017	367	376	384	390
2018	1,017	1,184	1,381	1,587		2018	396	403	475	475
2019	1,770	1,953	2,124	2,278		2019	419	423	466	485
Sal/Shr	Mar	Jun	Sep	Dec		P/Sal	Mar	Jun	Sep	Dec
2015				1.93		2015				6.8
2016	1.50	1.63	1.72	1.79		2016	10.2	5.5	6.8	7.6
2017	1.87	1.98	2.12	2.30		2017	9.2	11.8	13.6	16.1
2018	2.57	2.94	2.91	3.34		2018	19.2	21.0	34.0	16.8
2019	4.22	4.61	4.56	4.69		2019	11.7	13.4	13.6	12.0

At today’s price of about $44, the Price per Sales on a per share basis is about 9.4, which is as low as it has been since March, 2017 when the TTM adjusted revenue was about $687 million.

As of the most recent quarter (Dec '19), adjusted revenue was $2.278 billion.

After the earnings release, the stock price looked pretty strong, and it looked like Square was about to get a bit higher valuation as their Q4 performance and outlook was good. Immediately thereafter, the coronavirus took over, taking almost half of the market cap back.

The sales outlook (not adjusted) calls for about 30% growth for 2020 (I don’t know how to translate this adjusted revenues other than assuming the same). How will this hold up now that a lot of small businesses may go under? How many of these small businesses and, more importantly, restaurants will see their sales crater? How will the economic stimuli affect this? Will the virus positively affect the Cash App business? Does this situation create new business opportunities for Square?

Given Square’s relatively low valuation, the prospects for share price appreciation look a lot better than the potential additional downside.

I’m struggling deciding what to do about this, because I’ve been adding to AYX virtually all the way down to where it is now and want to continue and bought some more MDB and TTD as well. I feel AYX is my best bet. But I would like to stay somewhat diversified among my 10 holdings, and AYX makes up about 21% of my portfolio.

Regardless, I think that we will see serious appreciation in almost all of our companies within a few weeks or a month or two as we get some clarity on what will happen with COVID-19.

Stay safe!



I don’t know. On a historical basis the numbers look better as the price falls, BUT…small business is going to be decimated by this. The wave of new virus cases is going to skyrocket in the next few weeks and the current lockdowns in selected places are the tip of the iceberg. I think that small vendors will be hit hardest. Maybe I’m wrong, maybe it’s priced in. I just see businesses that cater to smaller vendors to be especially vulnerable. I sold my SQ and STNE today to free up more cash for other opportunities.


Sq also lends to smb through their Square Capital, which is a double-edge sword for them … revenue from sales and risk of loans

will be lots of uncertainty until best case they report Q2, which will be in July … an eternity of uncertainty from today

it’s cheap for a reason

seems all payments processors have been hit particularly hard: SQ, STNE, Afterpay and even MELI


I bought some at lows today. The price was too good and could not resist.

This will look very good in a year or so after COVID-19 crisis has passed. I will buy more if this goes lower.


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