Square and Shopify

I think it’s pretty simple why Shopify has taken off recently and Square is in consolidation. Both of these companies have become story stocks. Even institutions who are chasing performance will put their money into the one with the better story rather than the better growth rates.

In 2017 with Bitcoin being all the rage, Square aligned itself to it giving consumers the ability to buy Bitcoin using the cash app. When the headlines hit that Square was outpacing Venmo in the App Store the stock skyrocketed with the story being that maybe it was Bitcoin as the reason. It certainly helped Nvidia.

With the value of Bitcoin going down so did the stock along with Sarah leaving in 2018.

With the legalization in Canada of marijuana and Shopify aligning themselves with it, I think we are seeing the same phenomenon.


Like many of you I bought Square in the 20’s and something feels wrong about ‘switching horses’ with Shopify running up already doubling while growth rate slowing considerably. Again I think that Jack Dorsey will find another catalyst to get this thing moving again and early Square investors have to be patient. Investing is a patient game. What consolidates usually skyrockets with a little patience. Ive seen it too many times. I’m holding on to my shares.


Totally agree especially regarding Bitcoin and Square.

In early-mid 2018 SQ went up over 100% in 6 months which was just insane. It was going up 4-5% a day for no good reason other than being a proxy for Bitcoin.

Now that SQ has come back down to earth it is probably just still on its “normal” trajectory excluding the crypto run-up, but it has to fight the problem of poor relative strength because of the artificial rise, which hurts it in the eyes of momentum investors.

I don’t know if SHOP has had as much of a run due to marijuana and whether it will crash back down at some point when the marijuana craze ends but I would be wary of it. In the long run it doesn’t change the thesis so one could presumably just hold through it.