formatting fail, lets try again
Let’s think about this. If I went to the casino and won 4 of 6 hands of blackjack, would I conclude that I have a winning system/insight…or that I was just lucky?
Just for a little devils advocate, in the average lifetime, how many real, meaningful, opportunities does an investor get to make a macro decision of the exposure of their portfolio to risk assets? Or in other words “market timing their investments.”
Perhaps part of the problem is picking the correct 6 hands to use as your sample size. Unfortunately in order to do that it requires looking at more than just the performance of the businesses.
More good reads below. I think trading psychology can very easily be transferred to investor psychology. Similarly I like to look at charts with weekly, monthly, and even quarterly bars and see how the picture changes when I watch the trend rather than how long it took for the bars to play out.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2016/01/money-management-in-t…
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2015/04/you-cant-win-if-youre…