‘Timing the market’ does not have a definition; perhaps it should. Note that good investors time the market whenever they get the opportunity, which is very rare. (Buffett is doing it right now, with PSX.)
They do it in a certain way. A very long term view, plenty of cash and a sound knowledge of the market or sector concerned are all prerequisites.
- The subject has already fallen a long way.
The business of investing is not begun until an ending is in sight. (You can assume Buffett has taken a very informed view about the lowest oil can conceivably go.)
- The necessary cash to complete the program based on lowest conceivable price (WTI $8?) is available.
Investments will be made according to a program: on every pre-determined % fall in the subject right up to the point it ceases to fall, and thereafter on the basis of interval. (You can assume Buffett has a careful plan, based on his intended final maximum investment in PSX.)
- Time is not a factor.
The investor is prepared subsequently take no further interest in the investment until it plays out. While that might take years, the final annualized return should be satisfactory.
I have begun carrying out this scheme using two ETFs, one a combination of agriculture, mining and oil, the other materials. There are absolutely no other subjects and this is a rare moment. The last opportunity was the S&P500 08/09.
I hope my judgement is right!