Steven Hawking’s Predictions re: Saul&#82

Could the incredible growth of the companies many of us on this board have experienced be the pre-cursors to what Steven Hawking predicted in AI, machines and robotics just prior to his death? The company(s) that become the next great mega-stock(s)and the companies that support them? Thinking especially the AI brains of NVDA, and the capabilities of ANET, AYX, NTNX and PSTG. Then there’s CGNX and IPHP related to Mr. Hawking’s claims re: robotics and machines…and could machines and AI bleed into what AMZN and SHOP are doing to automate retail?

“…His dire prediction came as robots and artificial intelligence increasingly take over human jobs, with some 800 million people around the world — including a third of the workforce in the U.S. — predicted to be out of jobs by 2030 because of automation, according to an eight-month study from the McKinsey Global Institute. Though Hawking often warned about the upcoming robot takeover, he noted technology could also produce new solutions.

“If machines produce everything we need, the outcome will depend on how things are distributed,” he wrote. “Everyone can enjoy a life of luxurious leisure if the machine-produced wealth is shared, or most people can end up miserably poor if the machine-owners successfully lobby against wealth redistribution.”

continued…
https://www-marketwatch-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.marke…

sjo

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I came across a talk recently that said in 1944 there was only one programmer, Alan Turing who invented programming, and now there are millions. I did a quick CAGR calculation and the CAGR is astounding. The problem is that people want to keep legacy businesses and legacy jobs when they should be continually retraining and upgrading themselves to keep up with progress.

Denny Schlesinger

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Denny,
The constant upgrade and retraining mantra is not realistic. For a lot of people this is simply beyond their mental and emotional capabilities.

A good deal of this has to do with the way the education system here in the US (and elsewhere) has been continually downgraded for decades. Schools are underfunded, teachers are underpaid, higher education has become beyond the financial reach of a large segment of the population. This is not an accident. It has been intentional.

So try and put yourself in the position of someone who is poorly educated and has made a living from the sweat of your brow and strength of your back and now being told you should learn how to write code or something along those lines.

There has to be a different more compassionate solution than telling people to suddenly get smart.

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A good deal of this has to do with `the way the education system here in the US (and elsewhere) has been continually downgraded for decades. Schools are underfunded, teachers are underpaid, higher education has become beyond the financial reach of a large segment of the population. This is not an accident. It has been intentional.

There has to be a different more compassionate solution than telling people to suddenly get smart.

I’d reply to you but Saul does not want politics here.

Denny Schlesinger

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I don’t think this has to be political.

What about a beaten down stock that is a somewhat recent TMF recommendation: Appian? (APPN)

If I understand the concept correctly, it is that there are not enough highly-skilled coders out there for every Enterprise company that wants to invest in technology to help it become/stay competitive in the marketplace.

So Appian provides a diagram-like model of “building” your application via blocks of pre-made code.
That is an over-simplification and probably wrong, but my understanding is that Alteryx takes a similar approach and has this tagline on our Solutions section for analytics: “Our repeatable workflow gives you the ability to prep and blend all of your data in a drag-and-drop visual workflow with no coding required.”

I also feel that AI helps greatly here too…in the future, if you can provide simple instructions to a AI to write a piece of code to do X, Y, or Z, and they can spit it out almost instantly, then it reduces the amount of coding experts needed. You still likely need some QA folks to make sure that your little Skynet buddy didn’t just write something malicious or incorrect, but doing QA vs original creation should still speed the pace of innovation quite a bit.

Also an oversimplification, but an analogy might be that once we had calculators, we didn’t have to the do the really long math by hand anymore. We still have people that learn it, of course, and we learn the basics of add/subtract/multiply/divide, but most don’t try to do square or square root or large number computations by hand.

Maybe coding is following the same path. Which means Denny’s legacy skillset is akin to the abacus? :slight_smile:

-Dreamer

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For AI replacing coding itself, I am skeptical of any rapid change. AI coding replacing other functions, yes, but not doing the coding. Studies have shown a 1000X productivity range for programmers composed of about 10X each programmer experience and talent, tools, and language. This was in a fairly old study so there might be another 10X in there by now as I don’t think the bottom has moved, but the top has. In manufacturing, a 5% productivity difference is enough to create a competitive advantage, but obviously, for software development it is just not compelling enough for people to change.

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Maybe coding is following the same path. Which means Denny’s legacy skillset is akin to the abacus? :slight_smile:

My first coding efforts (1960) were closer to inscriptions on clay tablets but we were considered wizards! LOL

Programming has come a long way but the creative aspect is still there. So far AI has not displaced quality coders because the job is leading edge technology.

Denny Schlesinger

I got a Japanese abacus for a birthday present a very long time ago. I call it Apple Zero. You can see it in this picture from 2006 behind the candelabra. What I find interesting is that it uses the same bi-quinary coding that my first IBM computer used. The top row has one bead which can be in one of two positions (bi), while the four bottom beads can be in one of five positions (quinary). Two times five is ten so you have decimal notation with five beads!

http://softwaretimes.com/pics/nessie.jpg

Nessie is one of the creatures that live in my home office. BTW, you can also see a cylindrical slide rule behind Nessie. I never used it except to store pencils.

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Send it to me privately.

Send it to me privately.

People have to take their future into their own hands, that’s what this board teaches and preaches.

Let’s leave it at that.

Denny Schlesinger

Schools are underfunded, teachers are underpaid, higher education has become beyond the financial reach of a large segment of the population. This is not an accident. It has been intentional.

Public schools in NYC get ~$30k per kid. Hardly underfunded.

Where I live now the public school kindergarten music teacher gets over $120k a year, which includes benefits.

You can learn, literally, anything you want to learn online for free. And I don’t just mean coding because I agree with you there.

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Najdorf,
National average for K-12 teacher is about $38,000. And most have to buy their own health insurance as well as a large portion of school supplies. Your example of a kindergarten music teacher receiving $120K is not anywhere near the average. You can make more in Oklahoma pumping gas than you can as a teacher.

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