Stone Co. '19Q2 Prel. results

Headline Numbers:

TPV: $29.8 billion (up 60.6% on pcp)
Active clients: 360.2 K (up 76.5% on pcp)
Additional clients: 50.5 k (39.9 k pcp)
Take Rate: 1.85% (1.86% pcp)
Adj. income: Approx. $194 M (up 172% on pcp!)

Note: all number in Brazilian currency

Key highlights:

  1. Take rate relatively stable despite FUD event in April.
  2. Software sales exploding - more than doubling in the past six months to 70k subscribers. This is about 20% of current stone co. clients, which are growing at an annualised rate of +80%. I see software sales becoming a driver for growth in the longer term, allowing Stone Co. to maintain hyper growth longer.
  3. Stone Co. expanding TAM with a JV with Grupo Globo, targeting the micro businesses. Stone co. will own 67% of the JV. Grupo Globo is investing $461 M in media and marketing, and Stone Co. is providing the technology, software, and payment processing, and $50 million to fund operations. This is another huge, evolving market.
  4. Software development - Added more sotware solutions, such as scheduling management software for salons, as an example.

Great update, with Management continuing to execute on their vision.

Key risks to watch:

  1. Brazil inflation - while it is relatively benign right now, any uptick will de-base revenue growth.
  2. Competition - Watch the take rate closely. It should be realtively stable, particularly as software sales incrwase as a % of revenue. Any steep falls is a clear sign of competitive pressures.
  3. Competition - Customer growth rates stop increasing each quarter. This will be a sign of increased competition / market saturation.
  4. Grupo Globo JV - Execution risk - It is relatively minor, with what seems to be an asymmetric reward / risk equation. One to watch.




Any idea why there is almost no reaction in the market regarding STNE?

There was a reaction yesterday, the stock was up something like 4%.

Also realize that we weren’t given much detail in the press release. Many people are waiting until the actual financials are released to make a move.


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The Stone Co. share price has risen 45% over the past 2 months.

In all liklihood, short term traders are taking profits, which is keeping a lid on the share price - short term.