Stone Fox Capital take on AMD

The key investor takeaway is that Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. is far too cheap for the opportunity ahead. The market is too focused on the trough financial targets in 2022 and not the long-term upside for AMD in a few years.

They have AMD hitting 40 billion by 2026!
This is an interesting take on AMD, market dynamics and the current situation/valuation…doc


Stone Fox has been very, very pro AMD since he started covering AMD, sometime around 2018 I think. I think his long term view is correct the time frame to get there is what is up for grabs.

With rumors of Intel’s Emerald Rapids being canceled or at best facing delays, I think that 40 billion by 2026 is very doable.

I have not heard the rumor about emerald rapids, but it would not surprise me. If the design had any bug that would require a full stepping to be shippable, it would make sense to cancel it and move those resources to more advanced designs. With the Intel Xeon product line being split into Forests and Rapids I suspect resources are tight.

Alan, I am reading that Intel is getting their act together and that by 2025-26 they will have a very competitive product out. Can you verify this? My info is based on Intel news releases and not any actual sites that have tested or reviewed these new chips…doc

Future Intel products are all still “slide ware”. I view it as a high risk, but high potential reward situation. As we saw in Q3 earnings, Intel is doing very well in the client space taking back market share from AMD. OTOH, AMD continues to gain share in the server market. Intel just had a pretty strong launch event for their Sapphire Rapids 4th generation Xeon product line. Even though AMD continues to hold the top spot for cloud providers, Intel has a very broad product line with hundreds of customers.

During the launch event some Intel customers mentioned as much as a 10x speed up due to software optimizations. Other customers mentioned they just loaded their old software onto the new Intel platform and saw significant performance gains with no additional software effort. Even though for many applications AMD has a superior solution Intel is able to leverage their ecosystem to gain design wins.

While I still view NVIDIA as the leader in customizing AI solutions for the market, Intel is making inroads, while AMD is a distant third. In addition there are rumors floating around that the latest AMD server chip codenamed Genoa is fairly buggy and we don’t see real production silicon until the middle of 2023.

The HPC customers rely on software from a company called Codeplay, which just happens to be owned by Intel. That should be concerning for AMD. I would say right now there is lots of chaos with little clarity.


Appreciate the information…doc