Strangle watch on MAR

Here’s another one that goes with my favorite all-time high screens. After generally moving up all year, MAR made an all time high in late July, besting the last high from April 2022 of about 196. The new high of around 211 was set on August 10 and they’ve been consolidating sideways since then. I think that they are getting ready to do something significant (10+ points), I’m just not sure what.

They have been in an uptrend all year so the classic move would be to break out to the upside, and that would be a valid play. Then again, the most recent RSI divergence is negative and I don’t like the fact that volatility seems to have been increasing and is generally the highest since we’ve been in the current consolidation phase. On this chart, I would consider candle lengths greater than 5 to be volatile. Classic consolidation for a continuing uptrend is typically low volatility and lower-declining volume. So, maybe we go down.

So I might think of doing a strangle here. If anyone wants to try that here, just make sure you do not use options that expire soon. Nothing in September. The reason is that MAR is not going to be as exciting as your average high tech play, so that are not likely to give you a fast move up or down with instant profits. But you don’t want to go too long either because then your options are expensive making it harder to profit. I only do long term expensive options if I am counting on something big. On MAR I might look at mid October and hope to get something within a couple weeks.

If I take a MAR position I’ll update my status here, but I might not do anything this time. I’m in the middle of a change that is forcing me to cool off for a bit…


MAR looks like it has been steadily climbing for at least a year. With CPI coming out tomorrow, its risky to play anything unless you have an educated guess on which way the numbers will go.

I was out of pocket today so didn’t keep up with the news. I lean towards inflation numbers being worse tomorrow due to increased cost of crude/gasoline/diesel impacting costs across all businesses and so would have bought some puts against SPY or QQQ. Thats my guess anyways…doc


Yeah, I don’t keep up as much with all these economic factors as I should. On inflation the big issue there is that the headline numbers do not account for food and energy which are supposed to be too volatile to be used to judge inflation. Of course, the problem with this is that food and energy is what normal people pay attention to the most because that impacts them the most. It’s all so crazy.

It’s like I was telling someone recently when Biden was taking credit for his Bidenomics bringing down inflation. The thing is that when he took inflation to 9%+ the prices we faced every day were HORRIBLE. Now that he’s supposedly lowered inflation, prices are now 3%+ WORSE than horrible.

Okay, I’ll get back on topic now… :slight_smile: