Supply chain battleground

The world discovered during Covid how disruptive supply chain interruptions can be. It only takes the lack of one tiny part (such as a rare-earth magnet) to shut down an automobile assembly line.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/china-us-trade-war-supply-chains-2726c163?mod=hp_lead_pos2

Supply Chains Become New Battleground in the Global Trade War

U.S.-China talks on trade resemble arms-control negotiations, with export controls the key weapons in each side’s arsenal

By Jason Douglas, The Wall Street Journal, June 11, 2025

Key Points

  • The U.S. and China are using export controls as new economic weapons in their trade war, affecting global supply chains.

  • China controls key sectors, while the U.S. dominates in tech, leading to supply-chain vulnerabilities.

  • Companies might need to split supply chains to navigate tariffs and trade conflicts.

SINGAPORE—A key lesson from the latest skirmish in the U.S.-China trade war: The era of weaponized supply chains has arrived.

Earlier this week, Washington and Beijing ended a standoff involving the most potent new tool in superpower statecraft—export controls. As part of a monthslong trade fight, the two sides choked off the supply of such exports as rare earths or semiconductor technology in a bid to gain an edge…

Following the latest skirmish, China agreed to resume exports of rare-earth magnets and critical minerals needed by U.S. companies—but only for six months

In many essential sectors of the modern economy, China has the upper hand. The world’s second-largest economy accounts for around a third of global manufacturing output, giving it a potential chokehold on auto parts, basic ingredients for drugs, key parts of the electronics supply chain and a host of other industrial sectors. It is the world’s No. 1 exporter of machinery, ships, steel, ceramics, textiles and dozens of other goods, according to data from the International Trade Center, a U.N.-backed agency that promotes open trade.

The U.S. dominates fewer sectors—but its clout in advanced technology gives it an outsize advantage. … [end quote]

It would be a mistake to assume that the U.S. lead in advanced technology will be durable.

Starting a trade war with China is cutting off our nose to spite our face. There’s no way that the U.S. can rebuild our manufacturing base to compete with China given our disadvantages in labor costs and regulations. Even if we could it would take years…and our economy needs to import Chinese products NOW.

The uncertainty adds to the problem. What will tariffs be in 90 days? What will the supply chain be in 6 months?

Manufacturers and consumers may make or hold off decisions based on uncertainty which will distort the economy.
Wendy

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The news reported last night, that one concession the Chinese won, in exchange for resuming exports of magnet material, was Chinese students could continue to study as US universities.

Steve

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If you have someone bullying you what would you do? Go around the bully and make friends with everyone else and isolate the bully maybe? Canada is already making new supply chains, If China makes to be the nice guy everyone is going to warm up to them.

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This is actually a benefit to the U.S. since many of the students will stay here and become productive U.S. citizens. I have worked with many of these.
Wendy

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I would suspect allowing Chinese students to hand over their money to US universities is one issue. Letting non-white people stay in the US, is entirely a different matter to the regime.

Steve

During my professional life I did a lot of inventory related work. In a presentation I called Inventory, “A necessary evil.”

A Supply Chain Poem!

“For the want of a nail the shoe was lost,
For the want of a shoe the horse was lost,
For the want of a horse the rider was lost,
For the want of a rider the battle was lost,
For the want of a battle the kingdom was lost,
And all for the want of a horseshoe-nail.”

The Captain

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@captainccs I recently read a fascinating list of products and technologies that were completely lost when the Roman Empire fell in the 5th century CE because supply chains were interrupted. One example was clear glass which depended on ultra-pure imported sand. Another was paper which depended on papyrus imported from Egypt.

A similar regression in technology happened in 1200 BCE after the Bronze Age collapse which was followed by a Dark Age that lasted hundreds of years. Ask ChatGPT about this to get a long list of lost technologies and products. Bronze requires both tin and copper, often mined in distant regions (tin from as far as Cornwall or Central Asia, copper from Cyprus) so the interruption of supply chains forced the development of iron instead of bronze.

Wendy

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I believe Cyprus got it’s name from copper, their tin came from Afghanistan.

Here is a great supply chain story.

I, Pencil - My Family Tree as told to Leonard E. Read

I am a lead pencil—the ordinary wooden pencil familiar to all boys and girls and adults who can read and write. *

Writing is both my vocation and my avocation; that’s all I do.

The Captain

If we raise corporate taxes Chinese sales of goods in the US would create tax receipts for the US furthering reinvestment in the US. We need to get ahead constructively. Just destroying global trade alone is a limited plan.

@WendyBG In all regards China is losing that upper hand.