Monkey’s cogitating about Skyworks:
In lieu of any actual news from the head Suits, there’s been a lot of malaise around the stock:
- worry about a low-ball buy-out rumor
- Intel taking away business
- Apple slow-down
- Brexit slow-down
- other competitors catching up or taking away business
- a drifting price in the downwards direction
And yet, everything management is saying and the financials are showing suggest the opposite:
- increasing margins = less competition not more
- “a strong second half” = clear visibility about their customers’ pipelines
- increasing market share and increasing markets and growth opportunities
- the oft quoted line 'we do really complex things that other companies can’t and competitors won’t switch away from us to save a few pennies."
- Skyworks is currently either a ridiculous value or
2)There are things we don’t know and things we don’t know we don’t know and we might be caught holding the bags while some other tech fox steals he revenue pie.
SWKS is currently monkey’s largest position because of his wager that the higher probability is the case being the former. And when there’s a fat pitch, you swing hard–that’s how you beat the market.
But can we have some human big brains chime in on this and perhaps argue for the latter? What are we failing to see here? How can management publicly argue for how strong a position Skyworks is in if its not true?
Plus, if the buyout rumors are true, it would be silly to sell or reduce at 62 when 87 can be had a bit down the road. Bananas don’t grow on trees you know…
(Long SWKS and INFN, for that matter, which is maybe teaching him something: don’t invest in something your pea-brain can’t comprehend with 100% of its mind)