Systemic risk from stablecoins

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/23/opinion/trump-crypto-stablecoin.html

Crypto Is Good for Trump but Bad for America, The New York Times, By Dan Davies and Henry J. Farrell, May 23, 2025

Stablecoins, as their name suggests, are crypto assets guaranteed by other assets like the U.S. dollar. Mr. Trump and his sons created one called USD1 through their cryptocurrency company, World Liberty Financial. Digital currencies like stablecoins are bad enough when they could potentially be used for political self-dealing. The potential problems they pose to the mainstream financial system go deeper and are much more concerning…

Crypto interests want to break down the boundary between cryptocurrencies and regulated finance by integrating stablecoins into the regular U.S. financial system. …

Perhaps the greatest concern about stablecoins is their potential to provoke risk to the entire financial system. Because they are neither fully inside nor fully outside the traditional financial system, they present unique, grave challenges for which there are no clear answers. For example, the Genius Act’s drafters propose regular reports on their implications for financial stability. Yet they have no clear response to a critical question: Does the United States stand behind dollar-based stablecoins or not?

Specifically, if a stablecoin got into trouble or turned out to be a fraud, would it be bailed out? Doing so could create massive liabilities for U.S. taxpayers. Companies that are too big to fail are tightly regulated and supervised, and for good reason.

But not bailing out such a stablecoin would pose a new source of systemic risk for international users of the dollar system. Bank-run crises happen when no one is sure who is exposed to a cascading collapse and how badly, leading the system to freeze up as banks withdraw credit. That is why regulators demand transparency from the big players in the global dollar market… [end quote]

What is the GENIUS Act? It’s a proposal that hasn’t been enacted into law.

The U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, April 16, 2025

FACT SHEET: The GENIUS Act Protects Consumers

[Hmmm…that may or may not be a fact. – W]

At its core, the GENIUS Act is a consumer protection bill:

Payment stablecoins are a product already offered in the U.S. with little regulatory oversight.

This legislation establishes a first of its kind federal framework to regulate payment stablecoins that includes, among other things, robust reserve requirements to ensure payment stablecoins are not de-pegged and transparency into the reserves backing payment stablecoins.

The GENIUS Act establishes federal safeguards that protect stablecoin holders and enhance consumer confidence in the permitted payment stablecoin market, including requiring:

100% reserve backing with U.S. dollars and short-term Treasuries, or similarly liquid assets as determined by the primary regulator.

Monthly public disclosure of reserve composition.

Annual audited financial statements for issuers with more than $50 billion in market capitalization.

The GENIUS Act establishes strict marketing standards for payment stablecoins:

Prohibits any representation that payment stablecoins are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S., guaranteed by the U.S. government, or covered by FDIC insurance, making it unlawful to mislead consumers about government backing or the insurance status of payment stablecoins.

Ensures that a payment stablecoin cannot be marketed in a way that a reasonable person would perceive the stablecoin to be legal tender, issued by the U.S., or guaranteed or approved by the U.S. government.

Makes it illegal to market a digital asset as a payment stablecoin unless the digital asset is compliant with the provisions of the GENIUS Act... [end quote]

Should the U.S. Senate be regulating stablecoins, which are NOT legal tender ? Like other crypto assets, stablecoins are issued by private companies and are not regulated.

Could this legislation actually increase the systemic risk from stablecoins?

I think legislation should construct a red line between stablecoin companies and the regulated banking industry. That way, a run on stablecoins would not drag down the banking system.
Wendy

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Fannie and Freddie paper was, explicitly, not backed by the government, but the government made the paper good anyway. Job #1 is the care and feeding of the “JCs”. Nothing has changed since 2008.

Steve

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$JPM, $C, $BAC, $WFC and other commercial banks are thinking of forming a joint venture to launch a stablecoin. I don’t think this will lead to systemic risk, but needs to be seen.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/some-us-banks-explore-venturing-into-crypto-with-joint-stablecoin-wsj-reports-2025-05-23/

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Couldn’t you say the same of Gold? It isn’t legal tender. I do not have to accept it as payment. Can gold increase the systemic risk?

It is flabbergasting that the President of the United States is dealing in this. Truly astounding. And even more astounding that his supporters have no problem with it.

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My first impulse was to say that gold can’t increase systemic risk because it’s a hard commodity. Unlike crypto (or even dollar) assets, gold isn’t a fiat currency and can’t be conjured out of thin air.

On second thought, there is a way that gold can increase systemic risk in the same way that dollars can – by fractional reserve lending against the collateral gold and by derivatives.

The price of gold has been very volatile over decades.

Regulated banks do not keep gold as collateral against their loans. However, a “shadow bank” might keep gold as collateral and lend against the value. Should the price of gold collapse the value of the collateral would sink. This might cause a run on the bank which might spread, depending on its web of assets and liabilities.

Something similar happened to a conventional bank in 2023. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) invested a big chunk of its assets in long-term U.S. Treasuries which should have been as good as gold. However, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates due to inflation. The value of SVB’s Treasuries collapsed. There was a run on the bank and it failed.

The Federal Reserve took action to stabilize the market which can be seen as a zigzag in the Fed’s assets in 2023.

Wendy

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Just something I have been thinking about is they mine crypto with a computer and they mine gold with machines. So wouldn’t the mining of gold be considered getting it from thin air? They both are the product of work, although the work may be different, they both have to put time and money in to produce the final product. Just a thought.

Are stablecoins “mined” like bitcoin? Are “meme coins” mined like bitcoin? Or are they just invented with no input at all?
Wendy

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No, stable coins are not mined. They are minted and issued. Reserves are maintained to manage the value of the coin at a 1:1.

Some meme coins are mined, others are not.

It’s all rather confusing. Very few people actually understand crypto and how it works. I’m certainly no expert.

IMO, that’s why it’s so important to isolate crypto from real financial markets.

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What is meant by “minted”?
Wendy

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I think it means POF (pulled from air).

Pete

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Let’s use a USD backed stable coin as an example. Stable coins are minted (created) when someone deposits fiat collateral into a smart contract on a blockchain. Since the stable coin’s algorithm maintains a 1:1 ratio of reserves to stable coin, when new collateral enters the blockchain, new coins have to be created.

Generally, people don’t invest in stable coins. It’s an anonymous way for them to move their money around. Think of stable coins as a much easier way to launder money.

Stable coin companies make money off of providing a shady underworld of money transactions. They can earn interest off of collateral and they skim fees for transactions.

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And it is unlikely that stablecoins are actually backed 1:1. If they were, they’d be happy to show the audit. What appears to be happening the front organizations (like Tether and World Liberty Financial) are simply creating a certain percentage stable coins out of thin air, using that to buy crypto, selling the crypto for stable coins, and then cashing out.

This appears to be the driver of crypto prices like Bitcoin, which otherwise have no real use case.

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Weren’t you the guy that was giving me a hard time about bitcoin at $58,000? :laughing:

I’m sick of people calling everything in crypto a Ponzi scheme. Some crypto projects are pump and dump schemes, sure, while others are just pyramid schemes. Still others are merely standard issue fraud, and some are just middlemen skimming off the top. Stop glossing over the diversity in the industry.*

No, I think he was the guy telling you to get out of Enron even though it was still going up.

*stolen, I wish I thought of it.

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That is one I missed, probably because they bought all the electricity off of an aluminum plant in Montana and put a lot of people out of work.

I hadn’t considered this, but crypto is much better for blackmail and kidnapping. Unlike legal tender, where you have to have actual possession and deal with banks and money laundering and stuff, with crypto you just kidnap someone, torture them to get their wallet password, and then kill them and you’re nearly home free.

Like these guys did, except the guy escaped (after weeks of torture):

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/24/nyregion/crypto-investor-torture-italian-tourist.html

Crypto Investor Charged With Kidnapping and Torturing Man for Weeks

The investor, 37-year-old John Woeltz, and another man abused their victim for three weeks in a Manhattan townhouse as they tried to get his Bitcoin password, prosecutors say.

A 37-year-old cryptocurrency investor was charged on Saturday with kidnapping a man and beating, shocking and torturing him for weeks inside a luxury townhouse in downtown Manhattan, all in a scheme to get the man’s Bitcoin password, the authorities said.

The crypto investor, John Woeltz, was taken into custody on Friday after the man managed to escape the townhouse and notify the police. Mr. Woeltz was arraigned on Saturday morning in Manhattan criminal court and charged with assault, kidnapping, unlawful imprisonment and criminal possession of a gun. He was ordered held without bail

If you want to make yourself a target, be sure to tell all your friends you have “crypto”.

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Life is dangerous out there, be careful, probably best to just stay home. :grimacing:

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Too late for me. I stubbed my toe getting back to the couch. It’s a jungle in here too.

Pete

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Texas, is going back to Gold standard. There is a law that is in their senate, which will make you to accept Gold and Silver as legal tender. Never understand the stupidity of American politics.

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