Tariffs overnight are going up, CA now 35%

the 50% fixed is mostly short term T’s and CD’s, although I have CD’s into 2027 ( still short term ). Majority stock positions are etf’s: SPY, QQQ, SCHD, IJR,IJH. SPY and QQQ are kind of mirroring each other, so that exposes them to the same risk. I have single stock positions, but they are smallerish: MSFT,GOOG,NVDA. And then a couple of very small positions in small stocks, just there as a reminder to keep track. I want to get a heavier stock allocation, have always been more aggressive, but imo now is not the time.

As I’m sure is the case for most everyone on this board, cash flow is not a problem, can ride out a stock dump. That would be a stimulant to buy stock. But there is more than a decent chance that the guy large and in charge gets a wakeup call. The bond market seems to have his full attention, and we’ll see if tacoing is in store if the stock market has a hissy fit.

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This is now the most ridiculous market to be long.

Usd eur insured accounts

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… although between somewhat arbitrary tariff decisions, and firing government employees for publishing economic data disliked by leadership it must be a close call.

Fwiw, from the NZZ (Swiss newspaper):

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I can’t speak for anybody else, but firing the head of Bls for reporting bad numbers was the last straw in terms of destroying my faith in my country. If it is acceptable for Big Brother to fire the heads of government agencies for the crime of accurately reporting basic facts, where are the last guardrails? What is left to stop large multinational U.S. based corporations from doing the same? What is left to prevent them from cooking their books in return for paying appropriate tithes to Big Brother?

I originally planned to put my future cash into international investments, but leave much of my older investments alone. Now I have to find a tax efficient way to accelerate my transition. The U.S. no longer has my trust on a fundamental level.

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When was the last time a “JC” was personally prosecuted? After the series 20 years ago: honchos at Worldcom, Enron, Adelphia, Tyco, who has gone to the slammer? JPM has paid multiple “settlements” for violating a variety of laws, but Dimon keeps pulling in tens of millions per year, in spite of what goes on during his watch.

Steve

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There have been two impeachments in the last 8 years. It can happen again.

I remember several years back people on Saul’s board saying they would not invest in Chinese companies, no matter how strong the growth, because they could not trust the numbers. We are at that point here, domestically, in America.

Monday will see me moving further into European stocks and bonds than I am today.

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I remember pro forma earnings.

We are back there again. And no one is kidding anybody.

This is going to be very short lived. Top of market jetsom.

NYT Dealbook by Andrew Ross Sorkin

The ‘premium’ economy

By Amrita Khalid

Basic economy once ruled the airplane. Aside from those few rows in the business class cabin, what most passengers got was a bare bones, bottom-rung experience.

Now, even on budget airlines, premium seating is taking over.

Wealthy leisure travelers have proven most resilient to economic turbulence. So airlines are finding new ways to profit from customers who are willing to pay for some perks.

And it’s quite amazing how effective they were, too!

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Cause a Great Depression and the third’s a charm.

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Really? I saw no mention of these things when I went to the museum to learn about US history.

Pete

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Swept under the rug. A golden toilet bowl on top of the white shag carpet.

What impeachments? There is/was an impeachment exhibit at the Smithsonian, but the two Trump impeachments have been removed from that exhibit. However, Clinton’s is still there.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/american-history-museum-removes-trumps-name-impeachment-exhibit-2025-08-01/

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The color maroon comes to mind.

More on the color maroon, if the jobs market is “good” from now on, then there is no need for interest rates to drop…now is there…

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It means nothing without conviction in the Senate.

The Senate right now looks unlikely.

But cause a depression and it looks very possible.

Good thing I scrolled down, to see if anyone else had seen the “news” a couple days ago.

Yes, the two impeachments for trying to extort the Ukrainian government, and trying to overthrow the US government, have been sent down the memory hole by the “Ministry of Truth”.

Steve

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Folgers is Buy 1 get 1 free at my local grocery store (Publix) this week. That’s $11.40 for each large canister.

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