TCDA Binary Event Coming Up

Tricida is going to announce results of their clinical trial this month, that will either make or break the company.

Tricida, Inc. (Nasdaq: TCDA) announced today that a late-breaking clinical trial abstract on the Phase 3, VALOR-CKD renal outcomes trial has been selected by the American Society of Nephrology (ASN) and the Kidney Week Education Committee for oral presentation in the High-Impact Clinical Trials session at the ASN Kidney Week 2022 meeting that is currently scheduled to take place November 3 to 6, 2022 in Orlando, Florida.

The presentation entitled “VALOR-CKD: A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind Placebo-Controlled Trial Evaluating Veverimer in Slowing Progression of CKD in Patients With Metabolic Acidosis” will be given by Dr. Navdeep Tangri, M.D., Ph.D., F.R.C.P.(C), Professor of Medicine, Department of Medicine and Community Health Sciences, and Scientific Director, Chronic Disease Innovation Center, University of Manitoba. The session is currently scheduled as follows:

Session Date and Time: November 4, 2022, from 10:30 am to 12:30 pm Session Title: High-Impact Clinical Trials Session Room: W415 Valencia Abstract Publication #: FR-OR65 Presentation Time: 11:30 AM to 11:45 AM

Tricida previously announced that it anticipates reporting of top-line data from the Phase 3 VALOR’CKD renal outcome clinical trial in October 2022. At the present time, the VALOR-CKD trial remains blinded; the late-breaking clinical trials abstract that was chosen for presentation on November 4th contained no unblinded information.

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That sounds like a high-profile venue. I wonder, how does a company get to present at such events? I assume they have to apply. Do the event organizers get any inkling of the nature of the results? Do companies with lousy trial outcomes apply to present at high profile events?

Stated another way, can anything be inferred from the fact that such a presentation is scheduled?

(Yes, I don’t know beans about all this stuff.)

RH, I don’t know, and that’s a good question, maybe others can have input? The fact they plan on speaking to their data at a venue, AFTER they plan on releasing the data this month, sounds promising. Would they really go to this event and say their drug does not work? Could they simply cancel if the VALOR data turns out bad? Not sure if anything can be read into this or not.

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So kidney week is about as big as it gets for kidney docs.

(Also, love the “I don’t know beans about this stuff” reference, since we lovingly refer to kidneys as the beans)

Generally, most companies aim to present at these conferences because that is where their intended audience is. Things like, “late breaking abstract” generally implies that the company will have positive data. “high impact presentation” for a new drug or device at a conference likely means higher chance of being positive. I suspect (but have no data to back up this claim) that a higher percentage of these late breaking/high impact abstracts will be negative at oncology conferences. Again, no data to back this up, but probably more investors at ASCO or ESMO, and more money from pharma and finance propping up the conference. Not so much as kidney week/ ASN.

Not to say that most of the late breakers for onco at negative, just that I would guess a higher percentage at oncology negative. More people at the conference would be like, “where tf am I going to this for it to be negative when I could be somewhere else and learning” at non-onc conferences than at esmo, ASCO, etc

Never invest in biotech…go to casino (50:50 chances)

Right after they took out a loan too. As far as I’m concerned this concludes the TCDA story.