So says Elon:
And people are spotting them in the wild:
Speculation is there is a follower vehicle with two Tesla employees in it.
1 Like
I wonder when FSD will have a Follow that car! mode.
Their creativity in the hyped short-form video genre is industry-leading.
They’ve take testimonial (single experience) to another level.
Careful wording to obfuscate? Check.
No occupants, no one in a certain seat, blah, blah.
None of that means autonomous/unsupervised and none of it demonstrates repeatability needed to scale.
They have done many demos. They did a demo driverless customer delivery last summer.
How are all of those driverless deliveries going?
Oh, there are none.
1 Like
The actually interesting observation is that no-one has demonstrated the ability to truly scale. Waymo continues to have a slow roll-out, the vehicles’ behaviors during the black-out were embarrassing, caused by too many vehicles asking for remote assistance at the same time:
In typical Waymo fashion, their fix is specific to wide-spread power outages, and not a general fix for related situations that may occur"
…we are now implementing fleet-wide updates that provide the Driver with specific power outage context, allowing it to navigate more decisively.
And, FWIW, here’s an interview with the guy (David Moss) who has driven (and is still driving) exclusively on FSD:
Not just coast to coast, but all over 25 states, and not just highways but also urban and rural streets, with stops at hotels and businesses. As of the interview, 11,600 miles and counting. “Every single aspect including parking, supercharger stops, city streets, construction zones, rain, fog, 2x4s in the road, etc.”
Oh, and he’s a LiDAR salesman, but not for automotive. And doesn’t own any TSLA shares.
2 Likes
Another testimonial?
We should be glad we don’t evaluate pharmaceuticals based on one person’s experience and instead use clinical trials.
Same idea applies to safety critical technological.
Let us know when Tesla has real data to support a claim, not influencer videos.
Are you ready today to let Tesla AI assume 100% responsibility for you and your family’s car travel? Substantially all trips, all roads, all driving?
2 Likes
Yes, and a biggie. And you clearly didn’t watch the video snippet as he’s not an "influencer, " he doesn’t even have his own YT channel or any other social monetization outlet that I can find. He does post on X.
Here’s another interview:
Those aren’t the relevant questions for this board. The real question is whether Tesla’s technology is advancing at a pace that indicates future out-sized returns for TSLA investors.
2 Likes
That wasn’t a “yes.”
The business will need adoption.
Adoption requires demonstrated autonomy.
But today we are not ready to put our family’s lives in the hands of Tesla’s AI driver, they haven’t advanced to the important milestone of demonstrated, repeatable autonomy despite all of the short-form video testimonials.
We don’t adopt pharmaceuticals with testimonials. We have data from clinical trials.
Tesla has advanced as a supervised product.
Tesla stock already has good returns with zero autonomy. Tesla stock performance is not much linked to business performance, operational or financial. They haven’t demonstrated autonomy and their financials are going the wrong direction.
What are your predictions for 2026?
Will Tesla get to some meaningful level of autonomy this year, or just more single experience demos and testimonials?
1 Like
We can ignore each other’s questions all year long.
While you’re trying to predict specific minutia of Tesla’s autonomy, I continue to focus on progress achieved, and what that’ll mean for the business and therefore stock. With TSLA recently hitting ATHs, much of the market is seeing what I’m seeing.
1 Like
Is “I’m 80% there” a good enough answer? I currently drive a 2019 hybrid.
I’ve never been in an EV of any flavor.
If (when?) I buy a new car, it’ll likely (80%) be a Tesla.
At that point, I’ll reevaluate and after a (short) adjustment period, I expect I’d let the FSD operate the car.
I also think that when I go Tesla I’ll not likely go back to ice.
I reserve the right to choose another hybrid. Or a different EV.
It just depends.
I’m like @Smorgasbord1 in that I’m long TSLA.
I see TSLA as an AI n robotics company.
And energy.
ralph
1 Like
Speak for yourself!
I answer your questions, no big deal.
Yes, of course.
If it’s good enough for you, your answer is good enough for me.
This isn’t the bar exam (much harder).
Current tally:
0 board members trust Tesla AI to drive them and family today
3 do not trust
2 Likes
I guess I need to be pedantic and pose it directly then:
Do you think Tesla’s technology is advancing at a pace that indicates future out-sized returns for TSLA investors?
1 Like
In the thread where I answered all of your questions, I essentially covered this: I don’t believe there is a relationship between Tesla’s actual operating results (“technology advancing”) and financial results and the stock price.
There may be a relationship between the perception of operating results (as communicated via short-form video and small sample demos) and the stock price.
Or people just meme stock away.
These are entirely plausible and defensible views of the stock price.
As I’ve written many times, and I’ll repeat, I do believe Tesla’s FSD is very good and is advancing.
However, these negative aspects of business performance and valuation are obvious: declining revenue, declining EV deliveries (2 years and accelerating), declining net income, astronomical P/E (300 and growing), failure to deliver anything close to the claims for autonomy and robots (and a giant list of other failed dreams like dojo, cybertruck, etc), unclear ROI on robotaxi.
As a quick contrast to wildly successful megacaps, Microsoft and Google each bring in $75-100 billion in (growing) revenue each quarter and have net income margins of 35%, yielding $26-35 billion in profit each quarter. Their P/Es are around 30.
3 Likes
That doesn’t answer the question, but whatever. Bears will be bears and bulls will be bulls. Time, as always, will tell.
1 Like
Sure it does.
Many, many people have expressed the same idea:
If there is no relationship between A (advancing - or not - technology) and B (stock price), then A does not predict B.
The problem is “many, many people” can’t tell how well a technology is progressing. See my post on Ray Kurzweil’s quarter-century old prediction on AI. Or the blog writer who famously declared he would eat a Tesla cap if Tesla vehicles changed lanes on their own, then ignored it when that happened, lol.
And then when it’s finally obvious that it has happened, the stock has already shot up in price. TBF, the real danger is that Elon gets distracted with something outside of Tesla and the effort(s) stall again.
1 Like