If you haven’t checked the fav’s over there such as DDOG etc. recently? Well, what was terrible (selling the already fallen to buy the future falling) has got “wings” as we say. Unfortunatly the wings must have been installed upside down.
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I don’t mind off topic posts, but the number of “Saul sucks” posts have been drowning out the BRK posts lately. I’m certain anyone who is interested in Saul’s board can find their way over there on their own. If you do go there, no need to report back with your findings.
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skye6 not as off topic as you suggest given Berkshire’s SNOW and the fact that others here may, just may, get what they consider quite the opportunity to join that position. We will see.
Also our board tends to be dominated for lengthy times by those from that board, the suggestion is that we are just not with the NEW NEW GAME…
…that to me plays like a very old game I have seen multiple times.
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There was a time when it was polite to label OT posts “OT”.
P.S.: I am all for OT posts. For me a beauty of this board. Often very entertaining, sometimes even interesting. But is labeling them accordingly really that much asked? NOBODY seem to care about that nice tradition any more (“That other board”, “old dealraker”, “General Motors”, “Doh… BABA”, “Verizon”, “X-Post”, “Amazon”, “Paul Volcker”: I have to go back to last milleniums posts to see otherwise).
P.P.S: Maybe I am a dinosaur and in modern times “13F out soon?” should be labeled “OT: 13F out soon?” instead - for “On Topic”.
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Ops. Sorry for including “Verizon”. See? That’s exactly the point. While quickly browsing I missed that this for a change is NOT off topic and threw it with everything else in that bin.
I really appreciate the OT posts. I don’t have the energy to research a wide variety of stocks and I know the discussion here is among a very smart group.
I would never have looked at UPST for example but the discussions here were interesting and I thought I saw some value and panic selling a few days ago and bought an entertainment sized position at 27. I sold it in two days at 37, as close to day trading as I’ll ever get, but it sure paid some restaurant bills.
In more responsible investing, discussions of the Dollar Tree Dollar General opportunities have lead to some nice gains. The OT discussions have indeed lead to some quibbling but they have been well worth while to me.
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not as off topic as you suggest given Berkshire’s SNOW…
For the record: yesterday, Saul posted on his board an excerpt from the Morningstar analyst who had regarded SNOW as being overvalued but now considered it to be undervalued. Saul’s implication was that this demonstrated the futility of looking at valuations.
I replied (as I recall): “So, the analyst appears to have been right: SNOW used to be overvalued and now it’s not. OK. Also, I’d thought that discussions of valuation were verboten here. Glad to see that may be changing.”
I can’t quote my response precisely, because both it and Saul’s original post are now gone. (I got no email notice of this, BTW.)
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Discussion of OVER-valuation is certainly prohibited on Saul’s board. The orthodoxy there is that no price is too high to pay for companies with extraordinary growth rates and margins – as long as those persist. So there is a lot of reading of tea leaves and watching for any slowdown, and as soon as a business stops putting up extraordinary numbers it’s quickly kicked to the curb. However, cheerleading on the basis of (alleged) undervaluation tends to be tolerated, especially during downturns, presumably because it makes the posters feel better. And Saul can always say whatever he wants. Fair enough, it’s his little kingdom.
The board makes an unusual read for a value guy, but I do like to see what kinds of companies growth and tech investors are looking at. Some of those businesses have really interesting characteristics. And while I won’t offer an opinion where it isn’t wanted, I’ve found that Munger is absolutely right that it’s helpful to take in different views. NB: that isn’t the same as giving time and attention to everyone who has a contrary opinion. I put quite a few posters here on ignore when I found they had nothing useful to say, only variations on, “warren is old, S&P has BEATEN BRK, Tesla to the moon ur idiots.” As a result, this board is a little greyer now, but with a higher signal-to-noise ratio. I hope that describes me, too.
I’m not sure how to go about valuing something like SNOW. I own a bit based on their extraordinary growth and the apparently enormous opportunity.
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replied (as I recall): “So, the analyst appears to have been right: SNOW used to be overvalued and now it’s not. OK. Also, I’d thought that discussions of valuation were verboten here. Glad to see that may be changing.”
I can’t quote my response precisely, because both it and Saul’s original post are now gone. (I got no email notice of this, BTW.)
Which is why I talk about it from time to time. I find it irresponsible to delete any post which doesn’t conform to the “thesis” without notice. What, pray tell, is wrong with pointing out that at a high price a stock is over-valued and at a low price it is not?
Of course you’re not allowed to do that on “that other board”, so people do it elsewhere, like here.
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I’m not as disciplined by nature as Jim, I do tend to read and attempt to grab some bit of knowledge from things I’m not much capable of understanding, and the Saul’s investment model is one of those things. But it does keep me a little bit more up-to-date on the world, same reason I watch Cramer a day or two a week along with probably 3-4 hours of CNBC. Otherwise given I’m old, well I’d go straight into paper and pen world, I’d be 30 years out of date.
So it goes to “to the degree” for me as to this type stuff. My guess is that from reading Saul’s board I will at some point invest in a Datadog or Snow, maybe not too long from now. To the degree those business can grow 50-100% a year I may pay 8 times sales if there are profits of some kind. And to the degree other businesses like Walmart begin to struggle? Well, things change.
To the degree thinking/acting goes all over for me. Registered as an independent I just voted today in the local Republican primary here is rural NC. All the candidates have campaign posters with photos of them carrying guns, handguns stuck in the pants (thus pointed at the crotch!) beside the belt buckle, sawed off (legal 16 inch barrel) shotguns, and AR-15’s…yep they all advertise their Christianity, family values, budget balancing, and of course mandatory presence of guns…but for me I’m for the ones less extreme, less extreme in all ways. Kinda goes along with my investment style. Just like voting though, the markets are dominated by the extreme types.
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As a result, this board is a little greyer now, but with a higher signal-to-noise ratio. I hope that describes me, too.
Worth a rec right there : )
Jim
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